Why has housing become so expensive in this town?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 21 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 3 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 3.
The bank wants pre-sales before it lends → Nobody insures a small builder for a tall buildingEmpty flats are worth more than let ones to some owners → Rents rise faster than wages every yearNobody in the council can read a build programme → Empty flats are worth more than let ones to some ownersNobody insures a small builder for a tall building → We cannot compete for land against a firm that can waitA permission takes longer than the money is available for → The lender's rules decide the flat layout, not the familyA small site is as expensive to permit as a large one → Two regulators disagree about the same wallBringing an old building back costs twice new build → Building anything takes years of permissionsThe archaeology survey took nine months and found nothing → A permission takes longer than the money is available forThe archaeology survey took nine months and found nothing → We cannot compete for land against a firm that can waitTwo regulators disagree about the same wall → A small site is as expensive to permit as a large oneTwo regulators disagree about the same wall → There is no trade left that can do lime plasterBuilding anything takes years of permissions → A small site is as expensive to permit as a large oneThere is no trade left that can do lime plaster → Bringing an old building back costs twice new buildThe land price already assumes the permission → Building anything takes years of permissionsWe cannot compete for land against a firm that can wait → Rents rise faster than wages every yearRents rise faster than wages every year → Nobody can afford to live where the work isNobody builds for people who do not have a deposit → Quality is what you get when someone stays for the whole jobNobody builds for people who do not have a deposit → Every consultee has a veto and none has a deadlineThe bank wants pre-sales before it lendsThe bank wants pre-salesbefore it lends②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONNobody in the council can read a build programmeNobody in the council canread a build programme③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe archaeology survey took nine months and found nothingThe archaeology survey tooknine months and foundnothing②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe land price already assumes the permissionThe land price alreadyassumes the permissionNobody builds for people who do not have a depositNobody builds for peoplewho do not have a depositEvery consultee has a veto and none has a deadlineEvery consultee has a vetoand none has a deadlineQuality is what you get when someone stays for the whole jobQuality is what you getwhen someone stays for thewhole jobA permission takes longer than the money is available forA permission takes longerthan the money is availableforEmpty flats are worth more than let ones to some ownersEmpty flats are worth morethan let ones to someownerswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYNobody insures a small builder for a tall buildingNobody insures a smallbuilder for a tall buildingwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYBuilding anything takes years of permissionsBuilding anything takesyears of permissionspart of a feedback loop⟳A small site is as expensive to permit as a large oneA small site is asexpensive to permit as alarge onepart of a feedback loop⟳There is no trade left that can do lime plasterThere is no trade left thatcan do lime plasterpart of a feedback loop⟳Two regulators disagree about the same wallTwo regulators disagreeabout the same wallpart of a feedback loop⟳Bringing an old building back costs twice new buildBringing an old buildingback costs twice new buildpart of a feedback loop⟳The lender's rules decide the flat layout, not the familyThe lender's rules decidethe flat layout, not thefamilyWe cannot compete for land against a firm that can waitWe cannot compete for landagainst a firm that canwaitwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYRents rise faster than wages every yearRents rise faster thanwages every yearNobody can afford to live where the work isNobody can afford to livewhere the work is
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① A statutory deadline on every consultee
we expect: a small builder can tell how long a decision will take
measured by: median weeks from application to decision
due 22 Jun 2027
guesses: the room: 27 (median of 15, spread 16 to 40)
② One regulator for one wall
no prediction about this action yet
③ Permit small sites on a shorter route
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.