Why does school attendance keep falling?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 23 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 5 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 1.
Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk it → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilToilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk it → Teachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absencePupils say nobody would notice if they were not there → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itNobody at school knows which pupils are young carers → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilOlder siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitude → Some families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchFines are issued to families who cannot pay them → Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeFines are issued to families who cannot pay them → Some families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchCover lessons with a supply teacher are the ones pupils skip → Pupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followParents contact the school only when the school has contacted them first → Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyoneSome families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunch → Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absenceSome families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunch → A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notReintegration after a long absence is left to the pupil → Pupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Parents contact the school only when the school has contacted them firstBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyoneLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → Fines are issued to families who cannot pay themLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notAnxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyone → Break is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longerTeachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absence → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itTeachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absence → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilThe first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the week → Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absencePupils say nobody would notice if they were not therePupils say nobody wouldnotice if they were notthere③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONNobody at school knows which pupils are young carersNobody at school knowswhich pupils are youngcarers②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONCover lessons with a supply teacher are the ones pupils skipCover lessons with a supplyteacher are the ones pupilsskipParents contact the school only when the school has contacted them firstParents contact the schoolonly when the school hascontacted them firstpart of a feedback loop⟳①②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 3 ACTIONSBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longerBreak is fifteen minutesand the queue for food islongerpart of a feedback loop⟳③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONAnxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyoneAnxiety is the reason givenmost, and there is awaiting list to see anyonepart of a feedback loop⟳③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the weekThe first lesson on Mondayis the most missed of theweekwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYSome families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchSome families keep childrenhome on days they cannotafford lunchpart of a feedback loop⟳Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absenceLetters home are the sametemplate whatever thereason for absencepart of a feedback loop⟳Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeOlder siblings' historywith the school shapes thefamily's attitudepart of a feedback loop⟳Fines are issued to families who cannot pay themFines are issued tofamilies who cannot paythempart of a feedback loop⟳Teachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absenceTeachers mark a latearrival the same as a fullabsencepart of a feedback loop⟳Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itToilets are locked duringlessons and some pupilswill not risk itpart of a feedback loop⟳A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notA pupil's absence recordfollows them but thereasons do notReintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilReintegration after a longabsence is left to thepupilPupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followPupils who fall behind stopcoming rather than sit inlessons they cannot follow
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows
we expect: weekly absence falls once the first call home asks why rather than reports the absence
measured by: % of enrolled pupils absent in a week
due 24 Dec 2026
guesses: the room: 12 (median of 15, spread 9 to 25)
② Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentage
no prediction about this action yet
③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adult
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.