Why do atrocities go unpunished?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 10 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 5 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 1.
Speaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed people → Evidence is gathered for a trial that may happen in fifteen yearsEvery state judges the case by what it costs them → So the organisation that knows most says leastEvery state judges the case by what it costs them → Acting early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedNaming it triggers obligations, so it is not named → Acting early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedSo the organisation that knows most says least → Every state judges the case by what it costs themSo the organisation that knows most says least → Each summary removes the part that would require actionThe same states arming a party also vote on protecting its victims → So warnings are hedged until they are unarguable, which is too lateEarly warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answer → Warnings were clear months before anyone actedActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punished → Warnings were clear months before anyone actedSpeaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed peopleSpeaking publicly ends theaccess that lets us feedpeople①③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSEvery state judges the case by what it costs themEvery state judges the caseby what it costs thempart of a feedback loop⟳③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONNaming it triggers obligations, so it is not namedNaming it triggersobligations, so it is notnamed①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSSo the organisation that knows most says leastSo the organisation thatknows most says leastpart of a feedback loop⟳①②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 3 ACTIONSThe same states arming a party also vote on protecting its victimsThe same states arming aparty also vote onprotecting its victimsEarly warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answerEarly warning systemsproduce reports nobody isobliged to answer①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSSo warnings are hedged until they are unarguable, which is too lateSo warnings are hedgeduntil they are unarguable,which is too lateActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedActing early is politicallycostly and acting late isnot punishedwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYEach summary removes the part that would require actionEach summary removes thepart that would requireactionEvidence is gathered for a trial that may happen in fifteen yearsEvidence is gathered for atrial that may happen infifteen yearsWarnings were clear months before anyone actedWarnings were clear monthsbefore anyone acted
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks
we expect: more warnings get a written answer once answering is somebody's duty
measured by: % of early warnings answered in writing within 14 days
due 24 Mar 2027
guesses: the room: 29 (median of 15, spread 15 to 60)
② Fund prevention as a line, not as a response
no prediction about this action yet
③ A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within days
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.