Why do false claims spread faster than corrections?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 14 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 4 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
Anyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interest → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowAnyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interest → There is no routine moment at which guidance is re-examinedA quiet revision looks like concealment even when it is not → The bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itRetracting a paper takes years and the claim travels in days → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowNobody has ever measured what a late correction costs → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow → So the incentive is to revise quietly rather than loudlyEmergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught it → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowEmergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught it → There is no routine moment at which guidance is re-examinedGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported → A quiet revision looks like concealment even when it is notGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported → The first statement sets the frame and every revision fights itGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported → A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check it → Nuance is stripped between the briefing and the headlineAnyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interestAnyone with relevantexpertise has funding fromsomeone with an interest①②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 3 ACTIONSRetracting a paper takes years and the claim travels in daysRetracting a paper takesyears and the claim travelsin days①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONNobody has ever measured what a late correction costsNobody has ever measuredwhat a late correctioncostswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYEmergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught itEmergency powers suspendthe checks that would havecaught it②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supportedGuidance was stated moreconfidently than theevidence supported①②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 3 ACTIONSA correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedA correction arrives longafter the decision itshould have changedA quiet revision looks like concealment even when it is notA quiet revision looks likeconcealment even when it isnotwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe first statement sets the frame and every revision fights itThe first statement setsthe frame and everyrevision fights itBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowBeing wrong in public costsan institution more thanbeing slowThere is no routine moment at which guidance is re-examinedThere is no routine momentat which guidance isre-examinedThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itThe bodies that issueguidance also fund thosewho check itSo the incentive is to revise quietly rather than loudlySo the incentive is torevise quietly rather thanloudlyNuance is stripped between the briefing and the headlineNuance is stripped betweenthe briefing and theheadline
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① A standing review date on every piece of guidance, published in advance
we expect: the public can tell a firm finding from a provisional one
measured by: % of official statements published with a confidence range
due 24 Mar 2027
guesses: the room: 40 (median of 15, spread 10 to 75)
② Publish the confidence and the range with every statement, always
no prediction about this action yet
③ A red team paid to argue the guidance is wrong, reporting separately
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.