Why are mass crimes so rarely prosecuted?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 16 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 2 of the 4 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
What we know we cannot say and what we can say is thin → By the time it is publishable it is historyWhat we know we cannot say and what we can say is thin → Every state judges the case by what it costs themOfficials are advised that a wrong word creates liability → So the safest position is a principle nobody appliesThe alternative to doing nothing is presented as full-scale war → Officials are advised that a wrong word creates liabilityA minister will not spend capital on a country with no domestic constituency → Sanctions are slow, blunt, and hurt the wrong people firstNobody offers the option between a statement and an invasion → Every state judges the case by what it costs themActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punished → Every proposal is heard as the beginning of an occupationActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punished → Warnings were clear months before anyone actedSo the safest position is a principle nobody applies → By the time it is publishable it is historySo the safest position is a principle nobody applies → Nobody offers the option between a statement and an invasionDomestic politics decides which suffering is legible → An ambassador's career is not made by being earlyNobody was ever sacked for caution → The tools between words and troops were never builtNobody was ever sacked for caution → An ambassador's career is not made by being earlyNobody was ever sacked for caution → Reform of the veto requires the consent of those who hold itCoverage decides which crisis reaches a minister's desk → Domestic politics decides which suffering is legibleWhat we know we cannot say and what we can say is thinWhat we know we cannot sayand what we can say is thinThe alternative to doing nothing is presented as full-scale warThe alternative to doingnothing is presented asfull-scale war②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSA minister will not spend capital on a country with no domestic constituencyA minister will not spendcapital on a country withno domestic constituencyActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedActing early is politicallycostly and acting late isnot punishedNobody was ever sacked for cautionNobody was ever sacked forcautionCoverage decides which crisis reaches a minister's deskCoverage decides whichcrisis reaches a minister'sdesk①③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSDomestic politics decides which suffering is legibleDomestic politics decideswhich suffering is legibleReform of the veto requires the consent of those who hold itReform of the veto requiresthe consent of those whohold itThe tools between words and troops were never builtThe tools between words andtroops were never builtEvery proposal is heard as the beginning of an occupationEvery proposal is heard asthe beginning of anoccupationWarnings were clear months before anyone actedWarnings were clear monthsbefore anyone actedSanctions are slow, blunt, and hurt the wrong people firstSanctions are slow, blunt,and hurt the wrong peoplefirstOfficials are advised that a wrong word creates liabilityOfficials are advised thata wrong word createsliabilitywhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYAn ambassador's career is not made by being earlyAn ambassador's career isnot made by being earlySo the safest position is a principle nobody appliesSo the safest position is aprinciple nobody applieswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYNobody offers the option between a statement and an invasionNobody offers the optionbetween a statement and aninvasionBy the time it is publishable it is historyBy the time it ispublishable it is historyEvery state judges the case by what it costs themEvery state judges the caseby what it costs them
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Build and fund the options between a statement and troops
we expect: there is something to reach for that is neither a statement nor an intervention
measured by: graduated options available between a statement and troops
due 25 Sep 2027
guesses: the room: 3 (median of 15, spread 1 to 6)
② A standing guarantor arrangement for ceasefires, agreed in advance
no prediction about this action yet
③ A mechanism to lift sanctions when conditions are met
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.