Why are deliveries late?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 20 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 5 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 1.
We measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Small errors are hidden to avoid blameA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletNew staff copy bad habits from old hands → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackFixes are patched locally and never shared → We spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themFixes are patched locally and never shared → Targets reward speed over accuracyPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zone → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans → Targets reward speed over accuracyTwo products with almost the same code sit on the same rack → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletTargets reward speed over accuracy → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedTargets reward speed over accuracy → Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedSupervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing else → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe forecast is made by people who never see a peak → Targets reward speed over accuracyOvertime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exception → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingWe measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakesWe measure errors perorder, so a bigger orderhides more mistakes①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSNew staff copy bad habits from old handsNew staff copy bad habitsfrom old hands②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacityPeak-hour load exceedsplanned capacity①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSThe best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zoneThe best pickers are movedto whatever is late, sonobody learns a zonewhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scansThe handheld takes fourseconds to confirm, sopeople batch their scans①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONSupervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing elseSupervisors are measured ondispatch time and nothingelseThe forecast is made by people who never see a peakThe forecast is made bypeople who never see a peak②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSTargets reward speed over accuracyTargets reward speed overaccuracypart of a feedback loop⟳Fixes are patched locally and never sharedFixes are patched locallyand never sharedpart of a feedback loop⟳A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingA short pick is recorded ascomplete so the line keepsmovingpart of a feedback loop⟳Small errors are hidden to avoid blameSmall errors are hidden toavoid blamepart of a feedback loop⟳Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackTwo products with almostthe same code sit on thesame rackpart of a feedback loop⟳Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionOvertime is the normal waywe finish a week, not theexceptionpart of a feedback loop⟳Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPicks are wrong oftenenough that customers nowcheck every palletpart of a feedback loop⟳Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedNobody checks a palletbefore it is wrappedWe spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themWe spend more time fixingerrors than we wouldpreventing them
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Refresh training every quarter, not once
we expect: fewer wrong picks once a planner has stood where the picking happens
measured by: picking errors per 1,000 lines
due 24 Dec 2026
guesses: the room: 6 (median of 15, spread 2 to 14)
② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week
no prediction about this action yet
③ One owner per recurring failure, named publicly
no prediction about this action yet
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.