Why does a lie travel further than the truth?
a walkthrough with stand-ins — a demonstration, not a finding · 17 certified links · outlined boxes are the roots · tap a claim to read it in full
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 4 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
Peer review is three unpaid people on a deadline → A researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderPeer review is three unpaid people on a deadline → The reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicThere is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed early → So institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check it → A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothing → There is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed earlyInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothing → A genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distanceNobody keeps a public record of which official claims were later revised → Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supportedOnce labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changes → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowThe reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the public → Institutions investigate themselves and find nothingThe few outside are dismissed as cranks by association → The bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itEach revision is announced as if it were the position all along → A researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderEach revision is announced as if it were the position all along → The reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow → A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedA correction arrives long after the decision it should have changed → Requests for data are answered eighteen months later, if at allA genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distance → So institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itPeer review is three unpaid people on a deadlinePeer review is three unpaidpeople on a deadline①③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSNobody keeps a public record of which official claims were later revisedNobody keeps a publicrecord of which officialclaims were later revisedOnce labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changesOnce labelled, a claimcannot get a hearing evenwhen the evidence changes①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe few outside are dismissed as cranks by associationThe few outside aredismissed as cranks byassociation③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONEach revision is announced as if it were the position all alongEach revision is announcedas if it were the positionall along②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itThe bodies that issueguidance also fund thosewho check itA researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderA researcher who audits afunder's work loses thefunderBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowBeing wrong in public costsan institution more thanbeing slowThe reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicThe reply is that releasewould be misinterpreted bythe publicwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supportedGuidance was stated moreconfidently than theevidence supportedA correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedA correction arrives longafter the decision itshould have changedInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothingInstitutions investigatethemselves and find nothingwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYRequests for data are answered eighteen months later, if at allRequests for data areanswered eighteen monthslater, if at allA genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distanceA genuine critic and abad-faith one lookidentical from a distanceThere is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed earlyThere is no body whose jobis to be wrong-footed earlySo institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itSo institutions treat allcriticism as one categoryand answer none of it
WHAT WAS PREDICTED TO FOLLOW
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Fund replication as a standing line, not a project
no prediction about this action yet
② Data released with the claim, or the claim carries a warning
no prediction about this action yet
③ A public register of every official claim and every later revision
we expect: a changed claim leaves a trace anyone can follow
measured by: % of revisions logged publicly within a week
due 22 Jun 2027
guesses: the room: 42 (median of 15, spread 15 to 70)
A map from True Causes: a group’s judgement, not a measurement.