True Causes
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/06d80ad/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/06d80ad/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/06d80ad
THE QUESTION

Why do our lorries never leave on time?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 2 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
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PROPOSED ACTION
One name per location, printed and enforced
Nothing said yet.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
Nobody has costed what an error actually costs us––––
The trolleys are too small for the orders we now get––––
The induction is a video nobody watches to the end––––
Handovers between shifts lose key details––––
Nobody has ever been thanked for catching an error––––
Targets reward speed over accuracy––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
Nobody has costed what an error actually costs usThe trolleys are too small for the orders we now getThe induction is a video nobody watches to the endHandovers between shifts lose key detailsNobody has ever been thanked for catching an errorTargets reward speed over accuracy
Publish the four worst locations and fix the racking discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
27 yes / 0 worse / 2 no
not decided yet
One name per location, printed and enforced in focus ↑ · close ✕not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
not decided yet
Pay the ten minutes for a proper handover discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
5 yes / 0 worse / 24 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
5 yes / 0 worse / 24 no
not decided yet
Highest leverage so far
Publish the four worst locations and fix the racking reduces 1 of 6 root causes
Pay the ten minutes for a proper handover reduces 1 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 2 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 4.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
The induction is a video nobody watches to the end → Handovers between shifts lose key detailsThe trolleys are too small for the orders we now get → New product codes arrive without anyone being told what changedThe trolleys are too small for the orders we now get → Targets reward speed over accuracyA picker who slows down to check is beaten by one who does not → Small errors are hidden to avoid blameHandovers between shifts lose key details → The scanner and the label printer disagree about leading zerosHandovers between shifts lose key details → Nobody reconciles what left the building with what was orderedNobody has ever been thanked for catching an error → Small errors are hidden to avoid blameNobody has ever been thanked for catching an error → Returns are put back on the shelf without being checkedNobody is paid for the ten minutes it takes to do a handover properly → New product codes arrive without anyone being told what changedNobody has costed what an error actually costs us → An error is only an error if the customer noticesNobody has costed what an error actually costs us → Targets reward speed over accuracyThe system says a location is empty when a pallet is sitting in it → Data lives in three systems that disagreeTargets reward speed over accuracy → Pickers are ranked against each other on a screen by the doorThe induction is a video nobody watches to the end ③ Pay the ten minutes for a proper handoverThe induction is a videonobody watches to the end③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe trolleys are too small for the orders we now getThe trolleys are too smallfor the orders we now getwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYA picker who slows down to check is beaten by one who does notA picker who slows down tocheck is beaten by one whodoes notNobody has ever been thanked for catching an error ① Publish the four worst locations and fix the rackingNobody has ever beenthanked for catching anerror①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONNobody is paid for the ten minutes it takes to do a handover properlyNobody is paid for the tenminutes it takes to do ahandover properlyNobody has costed what an error actually costs usNobody has costed what anerror actually costs uswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe system says a location is empty when a pallet is sitting in itThe system says a locationis empty when a pallet issitting in itData lives in three systems that disagreeData lives in three systemsthat disagreeAn error is only an error if the customer noticesAn error is only an errorif the customer noticesReturns are put back on the shelf without being checkedReturns are put back on theshelf without being checkedTargets reward speed over accuracyTargets reward speed overaccuracywhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYNew product codes arrive without anyone being told what changedNew product codes arrivewithout anyone being toldwhat changedSmall errors are hidden to avoid blameSmall errors are hidden toavoid blameHandovers between shifts lose key detailsHandovers between shiftslose key detailswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYPickers are ranked against each other on a screen by the doorPickers are ranked againsteach other on a screen bythe doorNobody reconciles what left the building with what was orderedNobody reconciles what leftthe building with what wasorderedThe scanner and the label printer disagree about leading zerosThe scanner and the labelprinter disagree aboutleading zeros
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Publish the four worst locations and fix the racking
② One name per location, printed and enforced
③ Pay the ten minutes for a proper handover
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 24 Dec 2026
actionPay the ten minutes for a proper handover
we expectthe next shift starts knowing what the last one left
measured by% of shifts with a completed handover
guessesthe room: 78 (median of 15, spread 55 to 95)