True Causes
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30 人 · 39 个想法
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7
行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人:它的主持人(已封存)
30 人 · 39 个想法 · 2 个小组 · 3 个房间 已结成联盟
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上,作为实时地图:
作为图片: https://truecauses.org/d/71b90d0/map.svg
作为数据: 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对(CSV). 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/71b90d0/<card>,列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/71b90d0
问题

Why do false claims spread faster than corrections?

把你的贴纸用在最重要的内容上。有证据支持的想法可以占用一个保留席位。

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你的贴纸额度
每个想法最多一张,共 5 张。至少投一票。
有 5 个席位为被忽视的想法保留——附上链接提名一个,当 2 人认同来源相关时就会计入。
为什么
阶段结束时,一名被提名者通过随机抽签入选,其余按提名数入选,每个利益相关方类别最多一个。模型只检查页面是否关于同一主题——从不检查它是否证明了这个主张。那要由房间来判断;没有其他人支持的提名不能占用席位。
关闭 ✕
Declaring an interest has replaced avoiding one
To be precise: this is about the mechanism, not anyone's motives.
类别 2
还没有人发言。
类别 1
Independence is asserted rather than structurally arranged
So the incentive is to revise quietly rather than loudly
Not an accusation: an institution can do this with everyone acting in good faith.
4 票讨论
类别 2
Anyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interest
1 票讨论
Declaring an interest has replaced avoiding one
To be precise: this is about the mechanism, not anyone's motives.
类别 3
Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow
13 票讨论
Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported
15 票讨论
类别 4
An error admitted early would have cost far less than one admitted late
0 票讨论
Emergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught it
2 票讨论
未归类
Fact-checking grants come from the bodies whose claims are checked
Not an accusation: an institution can do this with everyone acting in good faith.
0 票讨论
A minister needs an answer this week and the study reports next year
6 票讨论
A quiet revision looks like concealment even when it is not
1 票讨论
Nobody is assigned to look for evidence that the advice was wrong
10 票
↳ 被提名占用席位: https://example.org/ops-incident-review.pdf could not read it (HTTPError) 1/2 人支持
讨论
An advisory committee's dissent is recorded and not published
0 票讨论
A negative result is not publishable, so the record is skewed
Narrower than it reads — the wider claim is someone else's card.
0 票讨论
Data behind the guidance is not released with it
Narrower than it reads — the wider claim is someone else's card.
0 票讨论
Saying 'we do not know yet' is heard as incompetence
To be precise: this is about the mechanism, not anyone's motives.
0 票讨论
A fact-checker who contradicts a funder does not get renewed
Meaning the general pattern, not one case.
0 票讨论
Advice must be given before the evidence is complete or it is not advice
4 票讨论
A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changed
12 票讨论
Nobody funds the checking of the checkers
0 票讨论
Committee members are chosen partly for being unlikely to make trouble
0 票讨论
The press asks for a number and prints the number without the range
Narrower than it reads — the wider claim is someone else's card.
0 票讨论
Political timelines and evidence timelines are different lengths
0 票讨论
The evidence base is built from studies designed by interested parties
Scope: the last two decades, not all history.
0 票讨论
Retracting a paper takes years and the claim travels in days
Scope: the last two decades, not all history.
9 票讨论
Nobody outside can reproduce the analysis that produced the number
0 票讨论
Nuance is stripped between the briefing and the headline
2 票讨论
The same handful of experts sit on every committee
0 票讨论
Reversing guidance is used as proof the whole thing was a lie
Not an accusation: an institution can do this with everyone acting in good faith.
14 票讨论
Journals gain nothing from publishing a correction
0 票讨论
There is no routine moment at which guidance is re-examined
Narrower than it reads — the wider claim is someone else's card.
14 票讨论
A hedged message is reported as no message at all
0 票讨论
The bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check it
14 票讨论
Nobody has ever measured what a late correction costs
Officials learned that hedging gets them attacked from both sides
7 票讨论
The models were right about direction and wrong about magnitude, and only magnitude was reported
Meaning the general pattern, not one case.
0 票讨论
Preprints move faster than review and are quoted as settled
Narrower than it reads — the wider claim is someone else's card.
0 票讨论
The team that wrote the guidance reviews the guidance
Scope: the last two decades, not all history.
0 票讨论
The first statement sets the frame and every revision fights it
7 票讨论