问题
Why do false claims spread faster than corrections?
把你认为相似的卡片归为一类。分类只为方便阅读，不决定任何事。
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先按相似性形成类别，最后再命名
标准顺序：把你认为相似的想法两两关联——关联是对称的（A~B 即 B~A；方向无关紧要），一条关联在 2 名成员做出后成立。
为什么
关联是对称的——A~B 即 B~A。类别是从成立的关联中自然形成的分组，只有已形成的类别才能被人命名。你自己的关联带有 ✕，可以撤回；你不能移除别人的。类别只用于整理墙，从不限制投票——两张提出相同主张的卡片属于澄清阶段的合并。
关联和命名只能在归类阶段进行；主持人的 ← 可以重新开启它。
Independence is asserted rather than structurally arranged
类别 1
还没有人发言。
未命名类别 ——如果这一类有共同主线就为它命名，否则保持未命名 (2)
So the incentive is to revise quietly rather than loudly
~ Independence is asser…Independence is asserted rather than structurally arranged (18)
~ Being wrong in public…Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow (17)
未命名类别 ——如果这一类有共同主线就为它命名，否则保持未命名 (2)
Emergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught it
~ An error admitted ear…An error admitted early would have cost far less than one admitted late (15)
An error admitted early would have cost far less than one admitted late
~ Emergency powers susp…Emergency powers suspend the checks that would have caught it (15)
未命名类别 ——如果这一类有共同主线就为它命名，否则保持未命名 (2)
Anyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interest
~ Declaring an interest…Declaring an interest has replaced avoiding one (13)
Declaring an interest has replaced avoiding one
~ Anyone with relevant …Anyone with relevant expertise has funding from someone with an interest (13)
未命名类别 ——如果这一类有共同主线就为它命名，否则保持未命名 (2)
Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow
~ Guidance was stated m…Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported (22)
~ So the incentive is t…So the incentive is to revise quietly rather than loudly (17)
Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported
~ Being wrong in public…Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow (22)
~ Reversing guidance is…Reversing guidance is used as proof the whole thing was a lie (15)
~ Nobody is assigned to…Nobody is assigned to look for evidence that the advice was wrong (15)
· 尚未归类 (31)
Fact-checking grants come from the bodies whose claims are checked
A minister needs an answer this week and the study reports next year
A quiet revision looks like concealment even when it is not
Nobody is assigned to look for evidence that the advice was wrong
~ The models were right…The models were right about direction and wrong about magnitude, and only magnitude was reported (14)
~ Advice must be given …Advice must be given before the evidence is complete or it is not advice (13)
~ Guidance was stated m…Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported (15)
An advisory committee's dissent is recorded and not published
A negative result is not publishable, so the record is skewed
Data behind the guidance is not released with it
Saying 'we do not know yet' is heard as incompetence
A fact-checker who contradicts a funder does not get renewed
Advice must be given before the evidence is complete or it is not advice
~ Nobody is assigned to…Nobody is assigned to look for evidence that the advice was wrong (13)
A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changed
Nobody funds the checking of the checkers
Committee members are chosen partly for being unlikely to make trouble
The press asks for a number and prints the number without the range
Political timelines and evidence timelines are different lengths
The evidence base is built from studies designed by interested parties
Retracting a paper takes years and the claim travels in days
Nobody outside can reproduce the analysis that produced the number
Nuance is stripped between the briefing and the headline
The same handful of experts sit on every committee
Reversing guidance is used as proof the whole thing was a lie
~ Guidance was stated m…Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supported (15)
Journals gain nothing from publishing a correction
There is no routine moment at which guidance is re-examined
A hedged message is reported as no message at all
The bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check it
Nobody has ever measured what a late correction costs
Officials learned that hedging gets them attacked from both sides
The models were right about direction and wrong about magnitude, and only magnitude was reported
~ Nobody is assigned to…Nobody is assigned to look for evidence that the advice was wrong (14)
Preprints move faster than review and are quoted as settled
The team that wrote the guidance reviews the guidance
The first statement sets the frame and every revision fights it