True Causes
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/9458191/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/9458191/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/9458191
THE QUESTION

Why do parts that passed inspection come back?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 23 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 3 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
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PROPOSED ACTION
Ask each customer for their inspection method and gauge list, and keep it with the drawing
Nothing said yet.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
Tool wear is judged by ear––––
Rework is not counted anywhere––––
Deburring is done by whoever is free––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
Tool wear is judged by earRework is not counted anywhereDeburring is done by whoever is free
Ask each customer for their inspection method and gauge list, and keep it with the drawing in focus ↑ · close ✕✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
Measure every returned part before it is remade, and log what was found discuss✗ no, it does not
7 yes / 0 worse / 22 no
✗ no, it does not
5 yes / 0 worse / 24 no
not decided yet
Pay on right-first-time parts, not parts per hour discuss✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
Highest leverage so far
Pay on right-first-time parts, not parts per hour reduces 1 of 3 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 1 of the 3 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
Quotes are won on price, so cycle times are cut to the bone → The oldest machine makes the tightest-tolerance partQuotes are won on price, so cycle times are cut to the bone → Operators are paid on parts per hourParts that pass our inspection fail the customer's → The customer's returns log and ours do not matchDeburring is done by whoever is free → Parts that pass our inspection fail the customer'sRework is not counted anywhere → Quotes are won on price, so cycle times are cut to the boneThe same operator runs the same machine for years and nobody checks the settings → The drawing on the floor is not the revision the customer orderedCustomers changed their inspection method and never told us → Coolant is changed when it smells, not on a scheduleCustomers changed their inspection method and never told us → Operators are paid on parts per hourTool wear is judged by ear → Deburring is done by whoever is freeRework is not counted anywhereRework is not countedanywherewhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe same operator runs the same machine for years and nobody checks the settingsThe same operator runs thesame machine for years andnobody checks the settingsCustomers changed their inspection method and never told usCustomers changed theirinspection method and nevertold usTool wear is judged by ear ③ Pay on right-first-time parts, not parts per hourTool wear is judged by ear③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONDeburring is done by whoever is freeDeburring is done bywhoever is freewhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYCoolant is changed when it smells, not on a scheduleCoolant is changed when itsmells, not on a scheduleThe drawing on the floor is not the revision the customer orderedThe drawing on the floor isnot the revision thecustomer orderedQuotes are won on price, so cycle times are cut to the boneQuotes are won on price, socycle times are cut to theboneParts that pass our inspection fail the customer'sParts that pass ourinspection fail thecustomer'sOperators are paid on parts per hourOperators are paid on partsper hourThe oldest machine makes the tightest-tolerance partThe oldest machine makesthe tightest-tolerance partThe customer's returns log and ours do not matchThe customer's returns logand ours do not match
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Ask each customer for their inspection method and gauge list, and keep it with the drawing
② Measure every returned part before it is remade, and log what was found
③ Pay on right-first-time parts, not parts per hour
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 23 Jan 2027
actionAsk each customer for their inspection method and gauge list, and keep it with the drawing
we expectfewer parts come back once both sides measure them the same way
measured by% of shipped parts returned as defective
guessesthe room: 2.7 (median of 15, spread 1.5 to 5.5)