True Causes
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7/7 · Actions
30 people · 34 ideas
walkthrough · not counted
obstacles · anyone with the link · listed publicly · federation on
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30 people · 34 ideas · 2 groups · 3 rooms federated
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/a5c9f88/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/a5c9f88/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/a5c9f88
THE QUESTION

Why is it harder to get by than it was for our parents?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 2 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
Viewing as guest. Enter a handle to join and take part.
3 groups of claims influence each other in a circle
↺ Being told the economy is growing is its own i → The unexpected thing is expected and we still
↺ Being poor is expensive in ways that do not sh → Assets rose faster than wages for four decades → The system is designed so that trying harder c
↺ A single wage no longer supports a household → They think we spend too much and cannot see wh
A circle can be a real finding — a cycle that feeds itself — or a link whose direction was never really settled. The map treats the group as one node, so nothing inside it is a root on its own. If it is the second, the pair is worth putting back to the room.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
Assets rose faster than wages for four decades––––
Being poor is expensive in ways that do not show in a price index––––
The system is designed so that trying harder changes little––––
One illness turns into an arrears letter––––
Everything is a subscription now, including the car––––
There is no month without something unexpected––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesBeing poor is expensive in ways that do not show in a price indexThe system is designed so that trying harder changes littleOne illness turns into an arrears letterEverything is a subscription now, including the carThere is no month without something unexpected
Shifts published four weeks ahead discuss✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
26 yes / 0 worse / 3 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
Assess support on this month, not last year discuss✗ no, it does not
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✗ no, it does not
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
Sick pay from the first day discuss✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
⚑ the group split
20 yes / 0 worse / 9 no
Highest leverage so far
Shifts published four weeks ahead reduces 3 of 6 root causes
Sick pay from the first day reduces 2 of 6 root causes
Assess support on this month, not last year reduces 1 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 4 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
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A single wage no longer supports a household → Both of us work and neither of us can be illA single wage no longer supports a household → They think we spend too much and cannot see what things costBeing poor is expensive in ways that do not show in a price index → The system is designed so that trying harder changes littleOne illness turns into an arrears letter → The unexpected thing is expected and we still cannot budget for itYou are means-tested on last year while living in this one → The benefit that would help takes five weeks to arriveEverything is a subscription now, including the car → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverEverything is a subscription now, including the car → What used to be a job is now a series of contractsThe things that used to be bought once are now rented forever → There is no chemist, no bank and no bus after sixThere is no month without something unexpected → The unexpected thing is expected and we still cannot budget for itThey think we spend too much and cannot see what things cost → A single wage no longer supports a householdAssets rose faster than wages for four decades → Being poor is expensive in ways that do not show in a price indexBeing told the economy is growing is its own insult → Nobody who writes about this has ever waited for a benefit decisionBeing told the economy is growing is its own insult → The unexpected thing is expected and we still cannot budget for itThe unexpected thing is expected and we still cannot budget for it → Being told the economy is growing is its own insultYou pay more over five years and own nothing at the end → You are means-tested on last year while living in this oneThe system is designed so that trying harder changes little → A single wage no longer supports a householdThe system is designed so that trying harder changes little → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesBeing poor is expensive in ways that do not show in a price indexBeing poor is expensive inways that do not show in aprice indexpart of a feedback loop⟳what the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYOne illness turns into an arrears letter ① Shifts published four weeks ahead ② Assess support on this month, not last yearOne illness turns into anarrears letter①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSEverything is a subscription now, including the car ③ Sick pay from the first dayEverything is asubscription now, includingthe car③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThere is no month without something unexpected ① Shifts published four weeks aheadThere is no month withoutsomething unexpected①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONAssets rose faster than wages for four decadesAssets rose faster thanwages for four decadespart of a feedback loop⟳what the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYYou pay more over five years and own nothing at the endYou pay more over fiveyears and own nothing atthe endThe system is designed so that trying harder changes little ① Shifts published four weeks ahead ③ Sick pay from the first dayThe system is designed sothat trying harder changeslittlepart of a feedback loop⟳①③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSYou are means-tested on last year while living in this oneYou are means-tested onlast year while living inthis oneThe things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverThe things that used to bebought once are now rentedforeverWhat used to be a job is now a series of contractsWhat used to be a job isnow a series of contractsThe unexpected thing is expected and we still cannot budget for itThe unexpected thing isexpected and we stillcannot budget for itpart of a feedback loop⟳Being told the economy is growing is its own insultBeing told the economy isgrowing is its own insultpart of a feedback loop⟳A single wage no longer supports a householdA single wage no longersupports a householdpart of a feedback loop⟳They think we spend too much and cannot see what things costThey think we spend toomuch and cannot see whatthings costpart of a feedback loop⟳The benefit that would help takes five weeks to arriveThe benefit that would helptakes five weeks to arriveThere is no chemist, no bank and no bus after sixThere is no chemist, nobank and no bus after sixNobody who writes about this has ever waited for a benefit decisionNobody who writes aboutthis has ever waited for abenefit decisionBoth of us work and neither of us can be illBoth of us work and neitherof us can be ill
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Shifts published four weeks ahead
② Assess support on this month, not last year
③ Sick pay from the first day
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 25 Sep 2027
actionSick pay from the first day
we expectgoing to work ill stops being the cheaper option
measured by% of workers with sick pay from the first day
guessesthe room: 50 (median of 15, spread 25 to 80)