True Causes
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/df955de/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/df955de/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/df955de
THE QUESTION

Why do young people leave town to find a job?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 10 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
Viewing as guest. Enter a handle to join and take part.
Some claims influence each other in a circle
↺ Recruiting takes the owner's evenings → The jobs here do not need what school taught → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final y → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervis → …
A circle can be a real finding — a cycle that feeds itself — or a link whose direction was never really settled. The map treats the group as one node, so nothing inside it is a root on its own. If it is the second, the pair is worth putting back to the room.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so––––
We asked to visit and never heard back––––
Young people leave and do not come back––––
We would take four a year if someone organised it––––
The last three we trained left within a year––––
The school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says soWe asked to visit and never heard backYoung people leave and do not come backWe would take four a year if someone organised itThe last three we trained left within a yearThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building
Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly discuss✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
27 yes / 0 worse / 2 no
✗ no, it does not
7 yes / 0 worse / 22 no
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
One named person in each school for employers to ring discuss✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
✗ no, it does not
1 yes / 0 worse / 28 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
A shared apprentice pool across small firms discuss✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
⚑ the group split
8 yes / 0 worse / 21 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
Highest leverage so far
Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly reduces 3 of 6 root causes
One named person in each school for employers to ring reduces 2 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 4 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 2.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so → Young people leave and do not come backA driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so → We hire on attitude and cannot test for itRecruiting takes the owner's evenings → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingRecruiting takes the owner's evenings → There is no single person in the school to ringThe jobs here do not need what school taught → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorThe jobs here do not need what school taught → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingThe last three we trained left within a year → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearThe last three we trained left within a year → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe would take four a year if someone organised it → The council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThe council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot make → Nobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaverYoung people leave and do not come back → The council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → There is no single person in the school to ringOne bad placement cost us a week of a supervisor → Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsOne bad placement cost us a week of a supervisor → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → The jobs here do not need what school taughtWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThere is no single person in the school to ring → The jobs here do not need what school taughtWe asked to visit and never heard back → Young people leave and do not come backNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → The jobs here do not need what school taughtNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → Half the applicants do not turn up to the interviewNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → There is no single person in the school to ringNobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaver → There is no employer group here that anyone convenesA driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterlyA driving licence is thereal entry requirement andnobody says so①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe last three we trained left within a yearThe last three we trainedleft within a yearwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYWe would take four a year if someone organised it ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly ② One named person in each school for employers to ringWe would take four a yearif someone organised it①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building ② One named person in each school for employers to ringThe school sent us thepupils they wanted out ofthe building②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONWe asked to visit and never heard back ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterlyWe asked to visit and neverheard back①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONYoung people leave and do not come backYoung people leave and donot come backwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe jobs here do not need what school taughtThe jobs here do not needwhat school taughtpart of a feedback loop⟳One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorOne bad placement cost us aweek of a supervisorpart of a feedback loop⟳Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsRecruiting takes theowner's eveningspart of a feedback loop⟳There is no single person in the school to ringThere is no single personin the school to ringpart of a feedback loop⟳Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearCareers advice is oneafternoon in the final yearpart of a feedback loop⟳We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe cannot afford the timeit takes to train someonefrom nothingpart of a feedback loop⟳Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomNobody in a position tohire ever visits aclassroompart of a feedback loop⟳We hire on attitude and cannot test for itWe hire on attitude andcannot test for itThe council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeThe council asks us forskills forecasts we cannotmakeHalf the applicants do not turn up to the interviewHalf the applicants do notturn up to the interviewNobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaverNobody has ever asked uswhat we would need to takea school leaverThere is no employer group here that anyone convenesThere is no employer grouphere that anyone convenes
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly
② One named person in each school for employers to ring
③ A shared apprentice pool across small firms
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 24 Mar 2027
actionOne named person in each school for employers to ring
we expectan employer who wants to reach a school knows who to ring
measured byemployers who contacted the school in a term
guessesthe room: 10 (median of 15, spread 3 to 20)