True Causes
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/1a6d403/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/1a6d403/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/1a6d403
THE QUESTION

Why do school leavers not find work here?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 23 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
Viewing as guest. Enter a handle to join and take part.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
The apprenticeship application closes before the exam results––––
Attendance is the problem behind most of the others––––
There are eleven apprenticeships in this town and four hundred leavers––––
The college is in the next town and the last bus is at six––––
Careers advice is one afternoon in the final year––––
The bus to the college costs four pounds a day––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
The apprenticeship application closes before the exam resultsAttendance is the problem behind most of the othersThere are eleven apprenticeships in this town and four hundred leaversThe college is in the next town and the last bus is at sixCareers advice is one afternoon in the final yearThe bus to the college costs four pounds a day
Two employers on the governing body discuss✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
⚑ the group split
8 yes / 0 worse / 21 no
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
A workshop back in the building discuss✓ yes, it reduces this
27 yes / 0 worse / 2 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
Track where every leaver is at one, three and five years discuss⚑ the group split
10 yes / 0 worse / 19 no
✗ no, it does not
4 yes / 0 worse / 25 no
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
not decided yet
Highest leverage so far
Two employers on the governing body reduces 1 of 6 root causes
A workshop back in the building reduces 1 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 1 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 5.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
The apprenticeship application closes before the exam results → There are eleven apprenticeships in this town and four hundred leaversYoung people leave and do not come back → Nobody teaches how to be interviewedThe jobs here do not need what school taught → Young people leave and do not come backNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe college is in the next town and the last bus is at six → The bus to the college costs four pounds a dayThe bus to the college costs four pounds a day → A part-time job pays now and a course pays in four yearsA teacher is measured on results, not on what happens after → We have no idea where last year's leavers wentAttendance is the problem behind most of the others → The college is in the next town and the last bus is at sixAttendance is the problem behind most of the others → A placement week is arranged by whoever knows someoneThe technical route is described to parents as the fallback → Young people leave and do not come backA placement week is arranged by whoever knows someone → We have no idea where last year's leavers wentA part-time job pays now and a course pays in four years → A teacher is measured on results, not on what happens afterThere are eleven apprenticeships in this town and four hundred leavers → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThe apprenticeship application closes before the exam results ① Two employers on the governing body ② A workshop back in the buildingThe apprenticeshipapplication closes beforethe exam results①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSAttendance is the problem behind most of the othersAttendance is the problembehind most of the otherswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe technical route is described to parents as the fallbackThe technical route isdescribed to parents as thefallbackA placement week is arranged by whoever knows someoneA placement week isarranged by whoever knowssomeoneThe college is in the next town and the last bus is at sixThe college is in the nexttown and the last bus is atsixwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThere are eleven apprenticeships in this town and four hundred leaversThere are elevenapprenticeships in thistown and four hundredleaverswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe bus to the college costs four pounds a dayThe bus to the collegecosts four pounds a daywhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYCareers advice is one afternoon in the final yearCareers advice is oneafternoon in the final yearwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYA part-time job pays now and a course pays in four yearsA part-time job pays nowand a course pays in fouryearsNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomNobody in a position tohire ever visits aclassroomA teacher is measured on results, not on what happens afterA teacher is measured onresults, not on whathappens afterThe jobs here do not need what school taughtThe jobs here do not needwhat school taughtWe have no idea where last year's leavers wentWe have no idea where lastyear's leavers wentYoung people leave and do not come backYoung people leave and donot come backNobody teaches how to be interviewedNobody teaches how to beinterviewed
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Two employers on the governing body
② A workshop back in the building
③ Track where every leaver is at one, three and five years
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 25 Sep 2027
actionTwo employers on the governing body
we expectthe school can see what happened to the people it taught
measured by% of leavers whose destination is known at one year
guessesthe room: 60 (median of 15, spread 35 to 85)