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30 人 · 35 个想法
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7
行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人:它的主持人(已封存)
30 人 · 35 个想法 · 2 个小组 · 3 个房间 已结成联盟
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上,作为实时地图:
作为图片: https://truecauses.org/d/2825602/map.svg
作为数据: 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对(CSV). 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/2825602/<card>,列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/2825602
问题

Why is there no work here for those finishing school?

提出该做什么,再判断每项行动能否撼动每个根源。

封存于 18 天前:这个房间已不再知道谁曾在其中;只有主持人仍然留名。它得出的结论保留。
30 人在座 (其中 29 名为模拟成员) · 针对 6 个根本原因已提出 3 项行动。添加一项,然后判断每项行动能否撼动每个原因。
正以访客身份查看。输入用户名即可加入并参与。
有些主张在一个循环中相互影响
↺ The careers website is a list of jobs, not of → The only people who told me to stay had alread
循环可能是一项真实的发现——一个自我强化的回路——也可能是一条方向从未真正确定的关联。地图把这组主张视为一个节点,所以其中没有一项单独是根源。如果是后一种情况,值得把这个卡片对重新交给房间。
先给根本原因打分
为什么
本方法自身的做法,在提出任何行动之前:每个根本原因按 1–5 分打分——解决它的可行性有多高、解决它会带来多大影响、不加干预它自行解决的可能性有多大。优先考虑影响大、可行性高、自行解决可能性低的根源——优先级 = 影响 + 可行性 − 可能性。分数在小组内取平均,并显示有多少人打了分。
1 = 低,5 = 高。这是你自己的分数;旁边是小组的平均分。
根本原因可行性影响自行解决优先级
Everyone I know who did well left––––
The application asked for experience I could not have had––––
Careers advice is one afternoon in the final year––––
My teachers were proud of me for going and sad for the town––––
Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom––––
I did not know that job existed until I met someone doing it––––
每项行动能撼动每个根本原因吗?
竖列:大家提出的行动。横行:地图找出的根本原因。每个格子都是对一个问题的一次投票——这项行动能否显著减少那个原因?一方必须达到所投票数的 75% 才算定下;达不到,格子就保持分裂。 每个格子显示其投票分布——是 / 更糟 / 否——当其中一项达到四分之三时,该格子就定下了。
为什么
以所投票数的 75% 定下,和这里的其他所有问题一样。分裂表示有人投了票,但没有一方达到这个标准——这是一个结果,不是排队等待,它会一直保持分裂,直到足够多的人改变主意。没有人定下的格子保持未定;它永远不会变成否。逐对单独判断,能防止一项受欢迎的行动被记上它根本没触及的功劳。
行动根本原因 · 左边的行动能减少它吗?
Everyone I know who did well leftThe application asked for experience I could not have hadCareers advice is one afternoon in the final yearMy teachers were proud of me for going and sad for the townNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomI did not know that job existed until I met someone doing it
Publish what every local job pays, by name 讨论✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
✗ 不,不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
✗ 不,不能
6 是 / 0 更糟 / 23 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
Placements chosen by the pupil, not allocated 讨论✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
✗ 不,不能
6 是 / 0 更糟 / 23 否
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
✗ 不,不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
One adult each leaver can ask, for two years after leaving 讨论✓ 是,它能减少这一项
28 是 / 0 更糟 / 1 否
✗ 不,不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
✗ 不,不能
7 是 / 0 更糟 / 22 否
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
24 是 / 0 更糟 / 5 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
目前杠杆作用最大
One adult each leaver can ask, for two years after leaving 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 2 个
地图上的行动
显示的是房间判断过的所有行动:它直接作用于 6 个根本原因中的 2 个。 有 4 个没有直接作用。
只依据房间在行动阶段定下的格子,别无其他。绿色的根本原因至少被所显示行动中的一项减轻;灰色的,没有一项直接作用于它;红色边框表示其中某项会使它更糟。
I would have stayed for a job that went somewhere → Young people leave and do not come backStaying feels like giving up on something → Young people leave and do not come backThe careers website is a list of jobs, not of how to get one → The only people who told me to stay had already left and come backCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → Nobody explained what to wear or when to arriveCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → The careers website is a list of jobs, not of how to get oneCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → Nobody told me what any of these jobs payNobody told me what any of these jobs pay → Taking a low-paid apprenticeship felt like a luxury I could not affordI did not know that job existed until I met someone doing it → Nobody told me what any of these jobs payEveryone I know who did well left → I would have stayed for a job that went somewhereEveryone I know who did well left → Staying feels like giving up on somethingEveryone I know who did well left → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThe application asked for experience I could not have had → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThe application asked for experience I could not have had → I did not apply because I assumed I would not get itNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe only people who told me to stay had already left and come back → The careers website is a list of jobs, not of how to get oneMy teachers were proud of me for going and sad for the town → Staying feels like giving up on somethingMy teachers were proud of me for going and sad for the town → The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe jobs here do not need what school taught → Without a car you cannot take most of these jobsI got one week's placement in a place nobody chose for me → The only people who told me to stay had already left and come backCareers advice is one afternoon in the final yearCareers advice is oneafternoon in the final year所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它I did not know that job existed until I met someone doing itI did not know that jobexisted until I met someonedoing it所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它Everyone I know who did well left ③ One adult each leaver can ask, for two years after leavingEveryone I know who didwell left③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它The application asked for experience I could not have hadThe application asked forexperience I could not havehad所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它My teachers were proud of me for going and sad for the town ③ One adult each leaver can ask, for two years after leavingMy teachers were proud ofme for going and sad forthe town③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它I got one week's placement in a place nobody chose for meI got one week's placementin a place nobody chose formeI did not apply because I assumed I would not get itI did not apply because Iassumed I would not get itStaying feels like giving up on somethingStaying feels like givingup on somethingNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomNobody in a position tohire ever visits aclassroom所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它The only people who told me to stay had already left and come backThe only people who told meto stay had already leftand come back属于一个反馈回路⟳The careers website is a list of jobs, not of how to get oneThe careers website is alist of jobs, not of how toget one属于一个反馈回路⟳I would have stayed for a job that went somewhereI would have stayed for ajob that went somewhereNobody told me what any of these jobs payNobody told me what any ofthese jobs payNobody explained what to wear or when to arriveNobody explained what towear or when to arriveThe jobs here do not need what school taughtThe jobs here do not needwhat school taughtYoung people leave and do not come backYoung people leave and donot come backTaking a low-paid apprenticeship felt like a luxury I could not affordTaking a low-paidapprenticeship felt like aluxury I could not affordWithout a car you cannot take most of these jobsWithout a car you cannottake most of these jobs
地图上的每个编号标出该行动所减轻的一个根本原因。
① Publish what every local job pays, by name
② Placements chosen by the pupil, not allocated
③ One adult each leaver can ask, for two years after leaving
我们预期接下来会发生什么
关于各项行动的预测:每项应改变什么、如何衡量、何时检查。到了那一天,曾在房间里的某个人会在旁边写下实际发生了什么。
为什么
地图说明哪些行动能撼动哪些原因。它不说明是否有人做了这些行动,也不说明是否有什么改变了。这里的每一条都是一项预测,带有日期和要衡量的东西,在地图定下后写成。日期到了,实际发生的情况会写在旁边,而预测保持原样:错误的预测才是有用的那种。没有人对这些投过票,它也不改变房间发现的任何东西。
符合预期
行动Publish what every local job pays, by name
预期a young person can tell what a job pays before applying
衡量指标% of local vacancies advertised with the pay named
估计房间:50(15 人的中位数,范围 25 到 75)
实际结果nothing