True Causes
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/2db047b/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/2db047b/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/2db047b
THE QUESTION

Why is a secure standard of living harder to reach than a generation ago?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 23 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
Viewing as guest. Enter a handle to join and take part.
Some claims influence each other in a circle
↺ Anyone without them was priced out of ever hol → Assets rose faster than wages for four decades → The things that used to be bought once are now
A circle can be a real finding — a cycle that feeds itself — or a link whose direction was never really settled. The map treats the group as one node, so nothing inside it is a root on its own. If it is the second, the pair is worth putting back to the room.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
The measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family faces––––
Classification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence––––
Three employers in a town is not a market for workers––––
Productivity rose and pay stopped following it––––
A single wage no longer supports a household––––
A household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
The measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family facesClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependenceThree employers in a town is not a market for workersProductivity rose and pay stopped following itA single wage no longer supports a householdA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution
Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
not decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers discussnot decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
5 yes / 0 worse / 24 no
Tax the asset at the rate of the wage discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
not decided yet
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
Highest leverage so far
Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it reduces 1 of 6 root causes
Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers reduces 1 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 2 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 4.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding them → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesA single wage no longer supports a household → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themA single wage no longer supports a household → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesA single wage no longer supports a household → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverAssets rose faster than wages for four decades → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Bargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesThe things that used to be bought once are now rented forever → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themDebt made the fall invisible until it was not → The statistics say the median is fine and the median household disagreesDebt made the fall invisible until it was not → Risk was transferred to households and called flexibilityA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themThe share of output going to wages fell and nobody decided it → Risk was transferred to households and called flexibilityThe measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family faces → A single wage no longer supports a householdThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Bargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesThe cost of the essentials rose faster than the basket used to measure inflation → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverTraining is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyone → A skill has a shorter life than a careerClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence → Training is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyoneProductivity rose and pay stopped following itProductivity rose and paystopped following itwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYDebt made the fall invisible until it was notDebt made the fallinvisible until it was notA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution ① Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish itA household absorbs shocksthat used to be absorbed byan institution①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONThe share of output going to wages fell and nobody decided itThe share of output goingto wages fell and nobodydecided itThe measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family facesThe measured rate ofinflation is not the rate ayoung family faceswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThree employers in a town is not a market for workersThree employers in a townis not a market for workerswhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe cost of the essentials rose faster than the basket used to measure inflationThe cost of the essentialsrose faster than the basketused to measure inflationClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence ② Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellersClassification asself-employed removesprotections withoutremoving dependence②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONTraining is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyoneTraining is an employercost, so nobody trainsanyoneA single wage no longer supports a householdA single wage no longersupports a householdwhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYBargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyBargaining power moved fromlabour to capital graduallyand completelyRisk was transferred to households and called flexibilityRisk was transferred tohouseholds and calledflexibilityThe statistics say the median is fine and the median household disagreesThe statistics say themedian is fine and themedian household disagreesA skill has a shorter life than a careerA skill has a shorter lifethan a careerThe things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverThe things that used to bebought once are now rentedforeverpart of a feedback loop⟳Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themAnyone without them waspriced out of ever holdingthempart of a feedback loop⟳Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesAssets rose faster thanwages for four decadespart of a feedback loop⟳
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it
② Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers
③ Tax the asset at the rate of the wage
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 25 Sep 2027
actionMeasure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it
we expectthe price of the things people cannot avoid buying has its own number
measured bymonths until an essentials index is published
guessesthe room: 14 (median of 15, spread 6 to 30)