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30 人 · 37 个想法
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7
行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人:它的主持人(已封存)
30 人 · 37 个想法 · 2 个小组 · 3 个房间 已结成联盟
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上,作为实时地图:
作为图片: https://truecauses.org/d/2db047b/map.svg
作为数据: 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对(CSV). 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/2db047b/<card>,列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/2db047b
问题

Why is a secure standard of living harder to reach than a generation ago?

提出该做什么,再判断每项行动能否撼动每个根源。

封存于 23 天前:这个房间已不再知道谁曾在其中;只有主持人仍然留名。它得出的结论保留。
30 人在座 (其中 29 名为模拟成员) · 针对 6 个根本原因已提出 3 项行动。添加一项,然后判断每项行动能否撼动每个原因。
正以访客身份查看。输入用户名即可加入并参与。
有些主张在一个循环中相互影响
↺ Anyone without them was priced out of ever hol → Assets rose faster than wages for four decades → The things that used to be bought once are now
循环可能是一项真实的发现——一个自我强化的回路——也可能是一条方向从未真正确定的关联。地图把这组主张视为一个节点,所以其中没有一项单独是根源。如果是后一种情况,值得把这个卡片对重新交给房间。
先给根本原因打分
为什么
本方法自身的做法,在提出任何行动之前:每个根本原因按 1–5 分打分——解决它的可行性有多高、解决它会带来多大影响、不加干预它自行解决的可能性有多大。优先考虑影响大、可行性高、自行解决可能性低的根源——优先级 = 影响 + 可行性 − 可能性。分数在小组内取平均,并显示有多少人打了分。
1 = 低,5 = 高。这是你自己的分数;旁边是小组的平均分。
根本原因可行性影响自行解决优先级
The measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family faces––––
Classification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence––––
Three employers in a town is not a market for workers––––
Productivity rose and pay stopped following it––––
A single wage no longer supports a household––––
A household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution––––
每项行动能撼动每个根本原因吗?
竖列:大家提出的行动。横行:地图找出的根本原因。每个格子都是对一个问题的一次投票——这项行动能否显著减少那个原因?一方必须达到所投票数的 75% 才算定下;达不到,格子就保持分裂。 每个格子显示其投票分布——是 / 更糟 / 否——当其中一项达到四分之三时,该格子就定下了。
为什么
以所投票数的 75% 定下,和这里的其他所有问题一样。分裂表示有人投了票,但没有一方达到这个标准——这是一个结果,不是排队等待,它会一直保持分裂,直到足够多的人改变主意。没有人定下的格子保持未定;它永远不会变成否。逐对单独判断,能防止一项受欢迎的行动被记上它根本没触及的功劳。
行动根本原因 · 左边的行动能减少它吗?
The measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family facesClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependenceThree employers in a town is not a market for workersProductivity rose and pay stopped following itA single wage no longer supports a householdA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution
Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it 讨论尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
尚未确定
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers 讨论尚未确定
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
23 是 / 0 更糟 / 6 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
Tax the asset at the rate of the wage 讨论尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
目前杠杆作用最大
Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 1 个
Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 1 个
地图上的行动
显示的是房间判断过的所有行动:它直接作用于 6 个根本原因中的 2 个。 有 4 个没有直接作用。
只依据房间在行动阶段定下的格子,别无其他。绿色的根本原因至少被所显示行动中的一项减轻;灰色的,没有一项直接作用于它;红色边框表示其中某项会使它更糟。
Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding them → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesA single wage no longer supports a household → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themA single wage no longer supports a household → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesA single wage no longer supports a household → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverAssets rose faster than wages for four decades → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Bargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyProductivity rose and pay stopped following it → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesThe things that used to be bought once are now rented forever → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themDebt made the fall invisible until it was not → The statistics say the median is fine and the median household disagreesDebt made the fall invisible until it was not → Risk was transferred to households and called flexibilityA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themThe share of output going to wages fell and nobody decided it → Risk was transferred to households and called flexibilityThe measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family faces → A single wage no longer supports a householdThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Bargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyThree employers in a town is not a market for workers → Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesThe cost of the essentials rose faster than the basket used to measure inflation → The things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverTraining is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyone → A skill has a shorter life than a careerClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence → Training is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyoneProductivity rose and pay stopped following itProductivity rose and paystopped following it所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它Debt made the fall invisible until it was notDebt made the fallinvisible until it was notA household absorbs shocks that used to be absorbed by an institution ① Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish itA household absorbs shocksthat used to be absorbed byan institution①所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它The share of output going to wages fell and nobody decided itThe share of output goingto wages fell and nobodydecided itThe measured rate of inflation is not the rate a young family facesThe measured rate ofinflation is not the rate ayoung family faces所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它Three employers in a town is not a market for workersThree employers in a townis not a market for workers所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它The cost of the essentials rose faster than the basket used to measure inflationThe cost of the essentialsrose faster than the basketused to measure inflationClassification as self-employed removes protections without removing dependence ② Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellersClassification asself-employed removesprotections withoutremoving dependence②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Training is an employer cost, so nobody trains anyoneTraining is an employercost, so nobody trainsanyoneA single wage no longer supports a householdA single wage no longersupports a household所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它Bargaining power moved from labour to capital gradually and completelyBargaining power moved fromlabour to capital graduallyand completelyRisk was transferred to households and called flexibilityRisk was transferred tohouseholds and calledflexibilityThe statistics say the median is fine and the median household disagreesThe statistics say themedian is fine and themedian household disagreesA skill has a shorter life than a careerA skill has a shorter lifethan a careerThe things that used to be bought once are now rented foreverThe things that used to bebought once are now rentedforever属于一个反馈回路⟳Anyone without them was priced out of ever holding themAnyone without them waspriced out of ever holdingthem属于一个反馈回路⟳Assets rose faster than wages for four decadesAssets rose faster thanwages for four decades属于一个反馈回路⟳
地图上的每个编号标出该行动所减轻的一个根本原因。
① Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it
② Competition policy that counts employers as well as sellers
③ Tax the asset at the rate of the wage
从行动到方案
表格对每项行动是单独判断的。方案是房间会一起执行的一组行动。
成员用能减轻某个根本原因的行动组合出方案,房间再像判断其他一切那样,把方案两两比较,以所投票数的四分之三为准。每个方案都显示它直接作用于哪些根本原因、哪些没有、又使哪些更糟。
主持人可以开启方案比较。
我们预期接下来会发生什么
关于各项行动的预测:每项应改变什么、如何衡量、何时检查。到了那一天,曾在房间里的某个人会在旁边写下实际发生了什么。
为什么
地图说明哪些行动能撼动哪些原因。它不说明是否有人做了这些行动,也不说明是否有什么改变了。这里的每一条都是一项预测,带有日期和要衡量的东西,在地图定下后写成。日期到了,实际发生的情况会写在旁边,而预测保持原样:错误的预测才是有用的那种。没有人对这些投过票,它也不改变房间发现的任何东西。
到期:25 Sep 2027
行动Measure inflation for the essentials separately, and publish it
预期the price of the things people cannot avoid buying has its own number
衡量指标months until an essentials index is published
估计房间:14(15 人的中位数,范围 6 到 30)