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30 人 · 34 个想法
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行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人:它的主持人(已封存)
30 人 · 34 个想法 · 2 个小组 · 3 个房间 已结成联盟
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上,作为实时地图:
作为图片: https://truecauses.org/d/df955de/map.svg
作为数据: 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对(CSV). 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/df955de/<card>,列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/df955de
问题

Why do young people leave town to find a job?

提出该做什么,再判断每项行动能否撼动每个根源。

封存于 10 天前:这个房间已不再知道谁曾在其中;只有主持人仍然留名。它得出的结论保留。
30 人在座 (其中 29 名为模拟成员) · 针对 6 个根本原因已提出 3 项行动。添加一项,然后判断每项行动能否撼动每个原因。
正以访客身份查看。输入用户名即可加入并参与。
有些主张在一个循环中相互影响
↺ Recruiting takes the owner's evenings → The jobs here do not need what school taught → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final y → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervis → …
循环可能是一项真实的发现——一个自我强化的回路——也可能是一条方向从未真正确定的关联。地图把这组主张视为一个节点,所以其中没有一项单独是根源。如果是后一种情况,值得把这个卡片对重新交给房间。
先给根本原因打分
为什么
本方法自身的做法,在提出任何行动之前:每个根本原因按 1–5 分打分——解决它的可行性有多高、解决它会带来多大影响、不加干预它自行解决的可能性有多大。优先考虑影响大、可行性高、自行解决可能性低的根源——优先级 = 影响 + 可行性 − 可能性。分数在小组内取平均,并显示有多少人打了分。
1 = 低,5 = 高。这是你自己的分数;旁边是小组的平均分。
根本原因可行性影响自行解决优先级
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so––––
We asked to visit and never heard back––––
Young people leave and do not come back––––
We would take four a year if someone organised it––––
The last three we trained left within a year––––
The school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building––––
每项行动能撼动每个根本原因吗?
竖列:大家提出的行动。横行:地图找出的根本原因。每个格子都是对一个问题的一次投票——这项行动能否显著减少那个原因?一方必须达到所投票数的 75% 才算定下;达不到,格子就保持分裂。 每个格子显示其投票分布——是 / 更糟 / 否——当其中一项达到四分之三时,该格子就定下了。
为什么
以所投票数的 75% 定下,和这里的其他所有问题一样。分裂表示有人投了票,但没有一方达到这个标准——这是一个结果,不是排队等待,它会一直保持分裂,直到足够多的人改变主意。没有人定下的格子保持未定;它永远不会变成否。逐对单独判断,能防止一项受欢迎的行动被记上它根本没触及的功劳。
行动根本原因 · 左边的行动能减少它吗?
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says soWe asked to visit and never heard backYoung people leave and do not come backWe would take four a year if someone organised itThe last three we trained left within a yearThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building
Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly 讨论✓ 是,它能减少这一项
22 是 / 0 更糟 / 7 否
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
24 是 / 0 更糟 / 5 否
尚未确定
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
27 是 / 0 更糟 / 2 否
✗ 不,不能
7 是 / 0 更糟 / 22 否
✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
One named person in each school for employers to ring 讨论✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
✗ 不,不能
1 是 / 0 更糟 / 28 否
尚未确定
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
✓ 是,它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
A shared apprentice pool across small firms 讨论✗ 不,不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
尚未确定
✗ 不,不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
⚑ 小组意见分裂
8 是 / 0 更糟 / 21 否
✗ 不,不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
目前杠杆作用最大
Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 3 个
One named person in each school for employers to ring 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 2 个
地图上的行动
显示的是房间判断过的所有行动:它直接作用于 6 个根本原因中的 4 个。 有 2 个没有直接作用。
只依据房间在行动阶段定下的格子,别无其他。绿色的根本原因至少被所显示行动中的一项减轻;灰色的,没有一项直接作用于它;红色边框表示其中某项会使它更糟。
A driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so → Young people leave and do not come backA driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so → We hire on attitude and cannot test for itRecruiting takes the owner's evenings → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingRecruiting takes the owner's evenings → There is no single person in the school to ringThe jobs here do not need what school taught → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorThe jobs here do not need what school taught → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingThe last three we trained left within a year → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearThe last three we trained left within a year → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe would take four a year if someone organised it → The council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeCareers advice is one afternoon in the final year → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThe council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot make → Nobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaverYoung people leave and do not come back → The council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorThe school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building → There is no single person in the school to ringOne bad placement cost us a week of a supervisor → Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsOne bad placement cost us a week of a supervisor → We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → The jobs here do not need what school taughtWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearWe cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothing → Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomThere is no single person in the school to ring → The jobs here do not need what school taughtWe asked to visit and never heard back → Young people leave and do not come backNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → The jobs here do not need what school taughtNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → Half the applicants do not turn up to the interviewNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorNobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroom → There is no single person in the school to ringNobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaver → There is no employer group here that anyone convenesA driving licence is the real entry requirement and nobody says so ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterlyA driving licence is thereal entry requirement andnobody says so①所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它The last three we trained left within a yearThe last three we trainedleft within a year所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它We would take four a year if someone organised it ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly ② One named person in each school for employers to ringWe would take four a yearif someone organised it①②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用2 项行动减轻它The school sent us the pupils they wanted out of the building ② One named person in each school for employers to ringThe school sent us thepupils they wanted out ofthe building②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它We asked to visit and never heard back ① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterlyWe asked to visit and neverheard back①所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Young people leave and do not come backYoung people leave and donot come back所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它The jobs here do not need what school taughtThe jobs here do not needwhat school taught属于一个反馈回路⟳One bad placement cost us a week of a supervisorOne bad placement cost us aweek of a supervisor属于一个反馈回路⟳Recruiting takes the owner's eveningsRecruiting takes theowner's evenings属于一个反馈回路⟳There is no single person in the school to ringThere is no single personin the school to ring属于一个反馈回路⟳Careers advice is one afternoon in the final yearCareers advice is oneafternoon in the final year属于一个反馈回路⟳We cannot afford the time it takes to train someone from nothingWe cannot afford the timeit takes to train someonefrom nothing属于一个反馈回路⟳Nobody in a position to hire ever visits a classroomNobody in a position tohire ever visits aclassroom属于一个反馈回路⟳We hire on attitude and cannot test for itWe hire on attitude andcannot test for itThe council asks us for skills forecasts we cannot makeThe council asks us forskills forecasts we cannotmakeHalf the applicants do not turn up to the interviewHalf the applicants do notturn up to the interviewNobody has ever asked us what we would need to take a school leaverNobody has ever asked uswhat we would need to takea school leaverThere is no employer group here that anyone convenesThere is no employer grouphere that anyone convenes
地图上的每个编号标出该行动所减轻的一个根本原因。
① Someone to convene the employers here, quarterly
② One named person in each school for employers to ring
③ A shared apprentice pool across small firms
从行动到方案
表格对每项行动是单独判断的。方案是房间会一起执行的一组行动。
成员用能减轻某个根本原因的行动组合出方案,房间再像判断其他一切那样,把方案两两比较,以所投票数的四分之三为准。每个方案都显示它直接作用于哪些根本原因、哪些没有、又使哪些更糟。
主持人可以开启方案比较。
我们预期接下来会发生什么
关于各项行动的预测:每项应改变什么、如何衡量、何时检查。到了那一天,曾在房间里的某个人会在旁边写下实际发生了什么。
为什么
地图说明哪些行动能撼动哪些原因。它不说明是否有人做了这些行动,也不说明是否有什么改变了。这里的每一条都是一项预测,带有日期和要衡量的东西,在地图定下后写成。日期到了,实际发生的情况会写在旁边,而预测保持原样:错误的预测才是有用的那种。没有人对这些投过票,它也不改变房间发现的任何东西。
到期:24 Mar 2027
行动One named person in each school for employers to ring
预期an employer who wants to reach a school knows who to ring
衡量指标employers who contacted the school in a term
估计房间:10(15 人的中位数,范围 3 到 20)