True Causes

NOTES · FROM THE LANDING PAGE

Standing on published work

The method is not new: fifty years of peer-reviewed work, hundreds of documented dialogues. Laouris and Christakis called it harnessing collective wisdom, and named scale as its hardest limit; lifting that limit is what this platform is for. A few deliberate departures. One of them: the method keeps every idea attached to its author's name throughout, and its practitioners argue anonymity weakens accountability. Here nobody is named inside a dialogue, because in a workplace or a divided community the name is what stops people writing the true card. We think the trade is right; it is untested, and we say so. See the research. The mechanism science around it, the priced adversary model, and the implementation are what we add.

The wider literature: Structured Democratic Dialogue · Interpretive Structural Modelling · Interactive Management. Our own simulations and their results ship with the software and are described in the notes bundled with it.

What else is out there. Polis finds where a crowd already agrees and shows you the clusters. Remesh and tools like it scale that agreement-finding to thousands of people. The Habermas Machine writes a statement most of a group can sign. All three are good at one question: what do we agree on? This asks a different one — what causes what? — settles it pair by pair, and keeps the disagreements it cannot settle instead of smoothing them over. The nearest tool is the method's own: IdeaPrism, from Laouris's team, runs clustering and mapping asynchronously and sends disagreements back for justification.

Not the wisdom of crowds. Galton's ox and every prediction market since work by averaging independent guesses: the errors cancel because nobody talked. That is the right tool for a number — a weight, a date, a price. It has no answer for does A cause B, where a hundred uninformed guesses average to an uninformed guess. This works the other way round: people are made to talk first, so that what they judge is informed; and their judgements are not averaged but counted against a bar they must clear together. Independence is what a crowd needs; shared meaning is what a group needs.

You can check the rules. Every dialogue records the thresholds it ran under — the supermajority, how many groups a claim needs, how many a deadlock is referred to — and shows them alongside the result. Change a threshold later and old dialogues still say what they were decided by, so the change is visible rather than silent.

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