True Causes
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7/7 · Akcije
osoba: 30 · ideja: 35
probni prolaz · ne računa se
prepreke · svako sa linkom · na javnom spisku · federacija uključena
vodi: njen voditelj (zapečaćeno)
osoba: 30 · ideja: 35 · 2 grupe · 3 sobe u federaciji
Pasoš → · Logika → · zapis
↗ podeli ovu mapu
Na drugom sajtu, kao živa mapa:
Kao slika: https://truecauses.org/d/e74d06f/map.svg
Kao podaci: svi ocenjeni parovi u ovoj sobi (CSV). Svaka tvrdnja ima svoju adresu, /c/e74d06f/<card>, navedenu ispod mape.
Navedite izvor kada objavljujete: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/e74d06f
PITANJE

Why does a lie travel further than the truth?

Predložite šta da se uradi, pa procenite da li bi svaka akcija pomerila svaki koren.

Zapečaćeno pre 9 dana: ova soba više ne zna ko je sedeo u njoj; po imenu ostaje samo njen voditelj. Ono do čega je došla ostaje.
za stolom: 30 (simulirano: 29) · 3 predložene akcije za osnovne uzroke (6). Dodajte jednu, pa procenite da li svaka akcija pomera svaki uzrok.
Gledate kao gost. Unesite korisničko ime da biste se pridružili i učestvovali.
zatvori ✕
PREDLOŽENA AKCIJA
A public register of every official claim and every later revision
Još ništa nije rečeno.
Najpre ocenite osnovne uzroke
zašto
Praksa same metode, pre nego što se predloži ijedna akcija: svaki osnovni uzrok dobija ocenu od 1 do 5 za to koliko je izvodljivo baviti se njime, koliki bi uticaj to imalo i koliko je verovatno da će se rešiti sam od sebe, bez ikakve intervencije. Prednost imaju osnovni uzroci sa velikim uticajem, visokom izvodljivošću i malom verovatnoćom da se reše sami — prioritet = uticaj + izvodljivost − verovatnoća. Ocene se uprosečuju za celu grupu i prikazuju uz broj onih koji su ocenjivali.
1 = nisko, 5 = visoko. Vaše ocene; pored njih proseci grupe.
osnovni uzrokizvodljivouticajrešava se samoprioritet
Each revision is announced as if it were the position all along––––
Peer review is three unpaid people on a deadline––––
The reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the public––––
Once labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changes––––
The few outside are dismissed as cranks by association––––
Institutions investigate themselves and find nothing––––
Koja akcija bi pomerila koji osnovni uzrok?
Sa strane: akcije koje su ljudi predložili. Gore: osnovni uzroci koje je mapa pronašla. Svako polje je jedno glasanje o jednom pitanju — da li bi ova akcija značajno smanjila taj uzrok? Jedna strana mora da dostigne 75% datih glasova da bi se pitanje rešilo; inače polje ostaje podeljeno. Svako polje pokazuje kako su pali glasovi — da / gore / ne — a polje je rešeno kada jedno od toga dobije tri četvrtine glasova.
zašto
Odgovor važi na 75% datih glasova, kao i svako drugo pitanje ovde. Podeljeno znači da su ljudi glasali, a nijedna strana nije dostigla taj prag — to je rezultat, a ne red čekanja, i ostaje podeljeno dok se dovoljno ljudi ne predomisli. Polje koje niko ne reši ostaje neodlučeno; nikad ne postaje „ne”. Ocenjivanje svakog para posebno sprečava da se popularnoj akciji pripiše da rešava stvari koje ne dotiče.
AKCIJAOSNOVNI UZROCI · da li ga akcija u levoj koloni umanjuje?
Each revision is announced as if it were the position all alongPeer review is three unpaid people on a deadlineThe reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicOnce labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changesThe few outside are dismissed as cranks by associationInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothing
Fund replication as a standing line, not a project diskutuj✗ ne, ne smanjuje
4 da / 0 gore / 25 ne
✓ da, smanjuje ovo
25 da / 0 gore / 4 ne
još nije odlučeno
✓ da, smanjuje ovo
25 da / 0 gore / 4 ne
✗ ne, ne smanjuje
2 da / 0 gore / 27 ne
još nije odlučeno
Data released with the claim, or the claim carries a warning diskutuj✓ da, smanjuje ovo
23 da / 0 gore / 6 ne
✗ ne, ne smanjuje
3 da / 0 gore / 26 ne
još nije odlučeno
✗ ne, ne smanjuje
4 da / 0 gore / 25 ne
✗ ne, ne smanjuje
5 da / 0 gore / 24 ne
još nije odlučeno
A public register of every official claim and every later revision u fokusu ↑ · zatvori ✕✗ ne, ne smanjuje
3 da / 0 gore / 26 ne
✓ da, smanjuje ovo
24 da / 0 gore / 5 ne
još nije odlučeno
✗ ne, ne smanjuje
2 da / 0 gore / 27 ne
✓ da, smanjuje ovo
26 da / 0 gore / 3 ne
još nije odlučeno
Najveći učinak zasad
Fund replication as a standing line, not a project smanjuje osnovne uzroke: 2 od 6
A public register of every official claim and every later revision smanjuje osnovne uzroke: 2 od 6
Data released with the claim, or the claim carries a warning smanjuje osnovne uzroke: 1 od 6
AKCIJE NA MAPI
Prikazano: sve akcije koje je soba ocenila. Direktno deluje na osnovne uzroke: 4 od 6. Bez direktne akcije: 2.
Pročitano samo iz polja koja je soba rešila u fazi Akcije. Osnovni uzrok u zelenom smanjuje bar jedna od prikazanih akcija; u sivom nijedna od njih ne deluje direktno na njega; crveni obrub znači da ga jedna od njih pogoršava.
Podelite ovaj prikaz: kao sliku · kao živu mapu za drugi sajt
Peer review is three unpaid people on a deadline → A researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderPeer review is three unpaid people on a deadline → The reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicThere is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed early → So institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check it → A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothing → There is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed earlyInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothing → A genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distanceNobody keeps a public record of which official claims were later revised → Guidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supportedOnce labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changes → Being wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowThe reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the public → Institutions investigate themselves and find nothingThe few outside are dismissed as cranks by association → The bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itEach revision is announced as if it were the position all along → A researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderEach revision is announced as if it were the position all along → The reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slow → A correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedA correction arrives long after the decision it should have changed → Requests for data are answered eighteen months later, if at allA genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distance → So institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itPeer review is three unpaid people on a deadline ① Fund replication as a standing line, not a project ③ A public register of every official claim and every later revisionPeer review is three unpaidpeople on a deadline①③šta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzroku2 AKCIJE GA SMANJUJUNobody keeps a public record of which official claims were later revisedNobody keeps a publicrecord of which officialclaims were later revisedOnce labelled, a claim cannot get a hearing even when the evidence changes ① Fund replication as a standing line, not a projectOnce labelled, a claimcannot get a hearing evenwhen the evidence changes①šta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzroku1 AKCIJA GA SMANJUJEThe few outside are dismissed as cranks by association ③ A public register of every official claim and every later revisionThe few outside aredismissed as cranks byassociation③šta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzroku1 AKCIJA GA SMANJUJEEach revision is announced as if it were the position all along ② Data released with the claim, or the claim carries a warningEach revision is announcedas if it were the positionall along②šta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzroku1 AKCIJA GA SMANJUJEThe bodies that issue guidance also fund those who check itThe bodies that issueguidance also fund thosewho check itA researcher who audits a funder's work loses the funderA researcher who audits afunder's work loses thefunderBeing wrong in public costs an institution more than being slowBeing wrong in public costsan institution more thanbeing slowThe reply is that release would be misinterpreted by the publicThe reply is that releasewould be misinterpreted bythe publicšta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzrokuNIJEDNA AKCIJA NE DELUJEDIREKTNO NA NJEGAGuidance was stated more confidently than the evidence supportedGuidance was stated moreconfidently than theevidence supportedA correction arrives long after the decision it should have changedA correction arrives longafter the decision itshould have changedInstitutions investigate themselves and find nothingInstitutions investigatethemselves and find nothingšta prikazane akcije čine ovom osnovnom uzrokuNIJEDNA AKCIJA NE DELUJEDIREKTNO NA NJEGARequests for data are answered eighteen months later, if at allRequests for data areanswered eighteen monthslater, if at allA genuine critic and a bad-faith one look identical from a distanceA genuine critic and abad-faith one lookidentical from a distanceThere is no body whose job is to be wrong-footed earlyThere is no body whose jobis to be wrong-footed earlySo institutions treat all criticism as one category and answer none of itSo institutions treat allcriticism as one categoryand answer none of it
Svaki broj na mapi označava osnovni uzrok koji ta akcija smanjuje.
① Fund replication as a standing line, not a project
② Data released with the claim, or the claim carries a warning
③ A public register of every official claim and every later revision
OD AKCIJA DO PLANA
Tabela je ocenila svaku akciju zasebno. Plan je skup akcija koje bi soba sprovela zajedno.
Članovi sastavljaju planove od akcija koje smanjuju neki osnovni uzrok, a soba poredi planove po dva, sa tri četvrtine datih glasova, kao što je ocenila i sve ostalo. Svaki plan pokazuje na koje osnovne uzroke direktno deluje, na koje ne i koje pogoršava.
Voditelj može da otvori poređenje planova.
Šta očekujemo da usledi
Predviđanja o akcijama: šta bi svaka trebalo da promeni, kako to izmeriti i kada proveriti. Tog datuma neko ko je bio u sobi upisuje pored predviđanja šta se zaista dogodilo.
zašto
Mapa kaže koje akcije pomeraju koje uzroke. Ne kaže da li ih je iko sproveo, niti da li se išta promenilo. Unos ovde je predviđanje sa datumom i nečim što se meri, napisano pošto je mapa rešena. Kada dođe taj datum, pored njega se upiše šta se zaista dogodilo, a predviđanje ostaje kakvo je bilo: pogrešno je upravo ono korisno. Niko nije glasao ni o čemu od ovoga i to ne menja ništa od onoga što je soba utvrdila.
rok: 22 Jun 2027
akcijaA public register of every official claim and every later revision
očekujemoa changed claim leaves a trace anyone can follow
merilo% of revisions logged publicly within a week
procenesoba: 42 (medijana; procena: 15; raspon od 15 do 70)