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← 大厅
7/7 · 行动
30 人 · 28 个想法
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行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人：它的主持人（已封存）
30 人 · 28 个想法 · 2 个小组
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上，作为实时地图：
作为图片： https://truecauses.org/d/435cc33/map.svg
作为数据： 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对（CSV）. 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/435cc33/<card>，列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处： Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/435cc33
问题

Why does school attendance keep falling?

提出该做什么，再判断每项行动能否撼动每个根源。

封存于 23 天前：这个房间已不再知道谁曾在其中；只有主持人仍然留名。它得出的结论保留。
30 人在座 （其中 29 名为模拟成员） · 针对 6 个根本原因已提出 3 项行动。添加一项，然后判断每项行动能否撼动每个原因。
正以访客身份查看。输入用户名即可加入并参与。
有 3 组主张在一个循环中相互影响
↺ Parents contact the school only when the schoo → Break is fifteen minutes and the queue for foo → Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is
↺ Toilets are locked during lessons and some pup → Teachers mark a late arrival the same as a ful
↺ Older siblings' history with the school s → Fines are issued to families who cannot pay th → Some families keep children home on days they → Letters home are the same template whatever th
循环可能是一项真实的发现——一个自我强化的回路——也可能是一条方向从未真正确定的关联。地图把这组主张视为一个节点，所以其中没有一项单独是根源。如果是后一种情况，值得把这个卡片对重新交给房间。
先给根本原因打分
为什么
本方法自身的做法，在提出任何行动之前：每个根本原因按 1–5 分打分——解决它的可行性有多高、解决它会带来多大影响、不加干预它自行解决的可能性有多大。优先考虑影响大、可行性高、自行解决可能性低的根源——优先级 = 影响 + 可行性 − 可能性。分数在小组内取平均，并显示有多少人打了分。
1 = 低，5 = 高。这是你自己的分数；旁边是小组的平均分。
根本原因可行性影响自行解决优先级
Parents contact the school only when the school has contacted them first––––
Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyone––––
Pupils say nobody would notice if they were not there––––
Break is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer––––
The first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the week––––
Nobody at school knows which pupils are young carers––––
每项行动能撼动每个根本原因吗？
竖列：大家提出的行动。横行：地图找出的根本原因。每个格子都是对一个问题的一次投票——这项行动能否显著减少那个原因？一方必须达到所投票数的 75% 才算定下；达不到，格子就保持分裂。 每个格子显示其投票分布——是 / 更糟 / 否——当其中一项达到四分之三时，该格子就定下了。
为什么
以所投票数的 75% 定下，和这里的其他所有问题一样。分裂表示有人投了票，但没有一方达到这个标准——这是一个结果，不是排队等待，它会一直保持分裂，直到足够多的人改变主意。没有人定下的格子保持未定；它永远不会变成否。逐对单独判断，能防止一项受欢迎的行动被记上它根本没触及的功劳。
行动根本原因 · 左边的行动能减少它吗？
Parents contact the school only when the school has contacted them firstAnxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyonePupils say nobody would notice if they were not thereBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longerThe first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the weekNobody at school knows which pupils are young carers
First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows 讨论✓ 是，它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
⚑ 小组意见分裂
8 是 / 0 更糟 / 21 否
✗ 不，不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
✗ 不，不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
尚未确定
✗ 不，不能
4 是 / 0 更糟 / 25 否
Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentage 讨论✓ 是，它能减少这一项
23 是 / 0 更糟 / 6 否
✗ 不，不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
✗ 不，不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
⚑ 小组意见分裂
8 是 / 0 更糟 / 21 否
尚未确定
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
26 是 / 0 更糟 / 3 否
A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adult 讨论✓ 是，它能减少这一项
26 是 / 0 更糟 / 3 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
26 是 / 0 更糟 / 3 否
尚未确定
✗ 不，不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
目前杠杆作用最大
A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adult 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 4 个
Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentage 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 2 个
First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 1 个
地图上的行动
显示的是房间判断过的所有行动：它直接作用于 6 个根本原因中的 5 个。 有 1 个没有直接作用。
只依据房间在行动阶段定下的格子，别无其他。绿色的根本原因至少被所显示行动中的一项减轻；灰色的，没有一项直接作用于它；红色边框表示其中某项会使它更糟。
分享此视图： 作为图片 · 作为供其他网站使用的实时地图
Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk it → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilToilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk it → Teachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absencePupils say nobody would notice if they were not there → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itNobody at school knows which pupils are young carers → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilOlder siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitude → Some families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchFines are issued to families who cannot pay them → Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeFines are issued to families who cannot pay them → Some families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchCover lessons with a supply teacher are the ones pupils skip → Pupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followParents contact the school only when the school has contacted them first → Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyoneSome families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunch → Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absenceSome families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunch → A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notReintegration after a long absence is left to the pupil → Pupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Parents contact the school only when the school has contacted them firstBreak is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer → Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyoneLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → Fines are issued to families who cannot pay themLetters home are the same template whatever the reason for absence → A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notAnxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyone → Break is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longerTeachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absence → Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itTeachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absence → Reintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilThe first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the week → Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absencePupils say nobody would notice if they were not there ③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adultPupils say nobody wouldnotice if they were notthere③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Nobody at school knows which pupils are young carers ② Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentageNobody at school knowswhich pupils are youngcarers②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Cover lessons with a supply teacher are the ones pupils skipCover lessons with a supplyteacher are the ones pupilsskipParents contact the school only when the school has contacted them first ① First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows ② Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentage ③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adultParents contact the schoolonly when the school hascontacted them first属于一个反馈回路⟳①②③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用3 项行动减轻它Break is fifteen minutes and the queue for food is longer ③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adultBreak is fifteen minutesand the queue for food islonger属于一个反馈回路⟳③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Anxiety is the reason given most, and there is a waiting list to see anyone ③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adultAnxiety is the reason givenmost, and there is awaiting list to see anyone属于一个反馈回路⟳③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它The first lesson on Monday is the most missed of the weekThe first lesson on Mondayis the most missed of theweek所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它Some families keep children home on days they cannot afford lunchSome families keep childrenhome on days they cannotafford lunch属于一个反馈回路⟳Letters home are the same template whatever the reason for absenceLetters home are the sametemplate whatever thereason for absence属于一个反馈回路⟳Older siblings' history with the school shapes the family's attitudeOlder siblings' historywith the school shapes thefamily's attitude属于一个反馈回路⟳Fines are issued to families who cannot pay themFines are issued tofamilies who cannot paythem属于一个反馈回路⟳Teachers mark a late arrival the same as a full absenceTeachers mark a latearrival the same as a fullabsence属于一个反馈回路⟳Toilets are locked during lessons and some pupils will not risk itToilets are locked duringlessons and some pupilswill not risk it属于一个反馈回路⟳A pupil's absence record follows them but the reasons do notA pupil's absence recordfollows them but thereasons do notReintegration after a long absence is left to the pupilReintegration after a longabsence is left to thepupilPupils who fall behind stop coming rather than sit in lessons they cannot followPupils who fall behind stopcoming rather than sit inlessons they cannot follow
地图上的每个编号标出该行动所减轻的一个根本原因。
① First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows
② Publish who is missing by year and reason, not one percentage
③ A return plan for every absence over a week, owned by a named adult
从行动到方案
表格对每项行动是单独判断的。方案是房间会一起执行的一组行动。
成员用能减轻某个根本原因的行动组合出方案，房间再像判断其他一切那样，把方案两两比较，以所投票数的四分之三为准。每个方案都显示它直接作用于哪些根本原因、哪些没有、又使哪些更糟。
主持人可以开启方案比较。
我们预期接下来会发生什么
关于各项行动的预测：每项应改变什么、如何衡量、何时检查。到了那一天，曾在房间里的某个人会在旁边写下实际发生了什么。
为什么
地图说明哪些行动能撼动哪些原因。它不说明是否有人做了这些行动，也不说明是否有什么改变了。这里的每一条都是一项预测，带有日期和要衡量的东西，在地图定下后写成。日期到了，实际发生的情况会写在旁边，而预测保持原样：错误的预测才是有用的那种。没有人对这些投过票，它也不改变房间发现的任何东西。
到期：24 Dec 2026
行动First contact home for any absence is a phone call that asks why, made by someone the pupil knows
预期weekly absence falls once the first call home asks why rather than reports the absence
衡量指标% of enrolled pupils absent in a week
估计房间：12（15 人的中位数，范围 9 到 25）