True Causes
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30 pipo · 37 ideas
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demo · dem no dey count am
wetin dey block · anybodi wey get di link · e dey public list · federation dey on
na di room coordinator (sealed) dey coordinate am
30 pipo · 37 ideas · 2 groups · 7 rooms e don join federation
Passport → · Logic → · record
↗ share dis map
For anoda website, as live map:
As picture: https://truecauses.org/d/59eaba9/map.svg
As data: evri pair wey dem judge for dis room (CSV). Each claim get im own address, /c/59eaba9/<card>, wey dey listed under di map.
Credit wen you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/59eaba9
DI QUESTION

Why do atrocities go unpunished?

Propose wetin to do, den judge whether each action go move each root.

Dem seal am 35 days ago: dis room no sabi again who sit inside am; na only im coordinator name still dey. Wetin e conclude go remain.
30 dey di table (29 na simulation) · 3 actions don come against 6 root causes. Add one, den judge whether each action dey move each cause.
You dey look as guest. Enter username to join and take part.
Some claims dey affect each oda for circle
↺ Every state judges the case by what it costs t → So the organisation that knows most says least
Circle fit be real finding — cycle wey dey feed imself — or link wey dem no really settle im direction. Di map dey treat di group as one node, so notin inside am na root on im own. If na di second one, e worth am to put di pair back to di room.
Score di roots first
why
Di method own practice, bifor anybodi propose any action: dem dey score each root cause 1–5 on how e fit work to tackle am, how much impact to tackle am go get, and how likely e go resolve by imself without anybodi do anytin. Priority dey go to roots wey get high impact, high chance to work, and low chance to fix demself — priority = impact + e fit work − e go fix imself. Dem dey average di scores across di group and show dem with how many pipo score.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; di group averages dey beside dem.
root causee fit workimpacte go fix imselfpriority
Every state judges the case by what it costs them––––
So the organisation that knows most says least––––
Naming it triggers obligations, so it is not named––––
Early warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answer––––
Acting early is politically costly and acting late is not punished––––
Speaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed people––––
Each action go move each root cause?
For di side: di actions wey pipo propose. For di top: di root causes wey di map find. Evri square na one vote on one question — dis action go reduce dat cause well-well? One side must reach 75% of di votes wey dem cast to settle am; if e no reach, di square go remain divided. Each square dey show how im votes fall — yes / worse / no — and square don settle wen one of dem reach three quarters of di votes.
why
Dem answer am at 75% of di votes wey dem cast, like evri oda question here. Divide mean say pipo vote and no side reach dat bar — na result, no be queue, and e go remain divided until enough pipo change dia mind. Square wey nobodi settle go remain undecided; e no dey ever turn to no. To judge each pair on im own na wetin dey stop pipo from giving popular action credit say e fix tins wey e no touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · di action for left dey reduce am?
Every state judges the case by what it costs themSo the organisation that knows most says leastNaming it triggers obligations, so it is not namedEarly warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answerActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedSpeaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed people
Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks discuss✗ no, e no dey reduce am
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
dem neva decide
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
Fund prevention as a line, not as a response discuss✗ no, e no dey reduce am
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
26 yes / 0 worse / 3 no
dem neva decide
✗ no, e no dey reduce am
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within days discuss✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
✗ no, e no dey reduce am
1 yes / 0 worse / 28 no
⚑ di group divide
8 yes / 0 worse / 21 no
dem neva decide
✓ yes, e dey reduce dis one
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
Di one wey get di biggest leverage so far
Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks e dey reduce 4 out of 6 root causes
Fund prevention as a line, not as a response e dey reduce 3 out of 6 root causes
A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within days e dey reduce 3 out of 6 root causes
DI ACTIONS FOR DI MAP
E dey show evri action wey di room judge: e dey touch 5 out of di 6 root causes directly. E no dey touch 1 directly.
Dem read am from di squares wey di room settle for Actions, notin else. Root wey dey green, at least one of di actions wey show dey reduce am; for grey, none of dem dey touch am directly; red outline mean say one of dem dey make am worse.
Speaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed people → Evidence is gathered for a trial that may happen in fifteen yearsEvery state judges the case by what it costs them → So the organisation that knows most says leastEvery state judges the case by what it costs them → Acting early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedNaming it triggers obligations, so it is not named → Acting early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedSo the organisation that knows most says least → Every state judges the case by what it costs themSo the organisation that knows most says least → Each summary removes the part that would require actionThe same states arming a party also vote on protecting its victims → So warnings are hedged until they are unarguable, which is too lateEarly warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answer → Warnings were clear months before anyone actedActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punished → Warnings were clear months before anyone actedSpeaking publicly ends the access that lets us feed people ① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks ③ A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within daysSpeaking publicly ends theaccess that lets us feedpeople①③wetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root cause2 ACTIONS DEY REDUCE AMEvery state judges the case by what it costs them ③ A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within daysEvery state judges the caseby what it costs theme dey inside feedback loop⟳③wetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root cause1 ACTION DEY REDUCE AMNaming it triggers obligations, so it is not named ① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks ② Fund prevention as a line, not as a responseNaming it triggersobligations, so it is notnamed①②wetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root cause2 ACTIONS DEY REDUCE AMSo the organisation that knows most says least ① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks ② Fund prevention as a line, not as a response ③ A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within daysSo the organisation thatknows most says leaste dey inside feedback loop⟳①②③wetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root cause3 ACTIONS DEY REDUCE AMThe same states arming a party also vote on protecting its victimsThe same states arming aparty also vote onprotecting its victimsEarly warning systems produce reports nobody is obliged to answer ① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks ② Fund prevention as a line, not as a responseEarly warning systemsproduce reports nobody isobliged to answer①②wetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root cause2 ACTIONS DEY REDUCE AMSo warnings are hedged until they are unarguable, which is too lateSo warnings are hedgeduntil they are unarguable,which is too lateActing early is politically costly and acting late is not punishedActing early is politicallycostly and acting late isnot punishedwetin di actions wey show dey do to dis root causeNO ACTION DEY TOUCH AMDIRECTLYEach summary removes the part that would require actionEach summary removes thepart that would requireactionEvidence is gathered for a trial that may happen in fifteen yearsEvidence is gathered for atrial that may happen infifteen yearsWarnings were clear months before anyone actedWarnings were clear monthsbefore anyone acted
Each number for di map show one root cause wey dat action dey reduce.
① Protect the mandate of an organisation that speaks
② Fund prevention as a line, not as a response
③ A standing obligation to answer an early warning in writing, within days
FROM ACTIONS TO PLAN
Di grid judge each action on im own. Plan na set of actions wey di room go carry out togeda.
Members dey put plans togeda from di actions wey dey reduce root cause, and di room dey compare di plans two by two, at three quarters of di votes wey dem cast, as e judge evritin else. Each plan dey show di root causes wey e dey touch directly, di ones wey e no dey touch, and di ones wey e dey make worse.
Di coordinator fit open plan comparison.
Wetin we expect say go follow
Predictions about di actions: wetin each one suppose change, how to measure am, and wen to check. For di date, somebodi wey bin dey di room go write wetin really happen beside am.
why
Map dey show which actions dey move which causes. E no dey show whether anybodi do dem, or whether anytin change. Entry here na prediction wey get date and sometin to measure, wey dem write afta di map settle. Wen di date reach, dem go write wetin really happen beside am and di prediction go stay as e be: di one wey wrong na di useful kain. Nobodi vote on any of dis and e no change anytin wey di room find.
e due 24 Mar 2027
actionProtect the mandate of an organisation that speaks
we dey expectmore warnings get a written answer once answering is somebody's duty
dem measure am by% of early warnings answered in writing within 14 days
guessesdi room: 29 (median of 15, from 15 reach 60)
WETIN NEXT
Wetin dis room find na di starting point for anoda kain map. Each round wey dey below go open as new room with di same pipo, wey don already enter, and wetin carry over go dey for im wall or beside am. Round dey fast pass first room: nobodi need join, di question don ready, di cards wey carry over don already get explanation, and any stage wey no get work again go close at once. Anoda round fit follow one round.
Actions · di root causes na wetin dem dey judge di actions against; actions wey move one don already dey di wall
Wetin we suppose do about di root causes wey we find, and wetin first?
Di coordinator go open di next round; your seat go carry over.