True Causes
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30 people · 42 ideas
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30 people · 42 ideas · 2 groups · 2 rooms federated
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On another site, as a live map:
As a picture: https://truecauses.org/d/a0141f0/map.svg
As data: every judged pair in this room (CSV). Each claim has its own address, /c/a0141f0/<card>, listed under the map.
Credit when you publish: Causal map: True Causes, https://truecauses.org/d/a0141f0
THE QUESTION

Why are deliveries late?

Propose what to do, then judge whether each action would move each root.

Sealed 40 days ago: this room no longer knows who sat in it; only its steward is still named. What it concluded stays.
30 at the table (29 simulated) · 3 actions proposed against 6 root causes. Add one, then judge whether each action moves each cause.
Viewing as guest. Enter a handle to join and take part.
2 groups of claims influence each other in a circle
↺ A short pick is recorded as complete so the li → Small errors are hidden to avoid blame → Two products with almost the same code sit on → Picks are wrong often enough that customers no → …
↺ Fixes are patched locally and never shared → Targets reward speed over accuracy
A circle can be a real finding — a cycle that feeds itself — or a link whose direction was never really settled. The map treats the group as one node, so nothing inside it is a root on its own. If it is the second, the pair is worth putting back to the room.
Score the roots first
why
The method's own practice, before any action is proposed: each root cause is scored 1–5 on how feasible it is to address, how much impact addressing it would have, and how likely it is to resolve by itself with no intervention. Priority goes to roots with high impact, high feasibility and low likelihood of fixing themselves — priority = impact + feasibility − likelihood. Scores are averaged across the group and shown with how many scored.
1 = low, 5 = high. Your own scores; the group's averages beside them.
root causefeasibleimpactfixes itselfpriority
The best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zone––––
The handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans––––
The forecast is made by people who never see a peak––––
New staff copy bad habits from old hands––––
Peak-hour load exceeds planned capacity––––
We measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes––––
Would each action move each root cause?
Down the side: the actions people proposed. Across the top: the root causes the map found. Every square is one vote on one question — would this action significantly reduce that cause? One side has to reach 75% of the votes cast to settle it; short of that the square stays split. Each square shows how its votes fell — yes / worse / no — and a square is settled when one of those reaches three quarters of them.
why
Answered at 75% of votes cast, like every other question here. Split means people voted and neither side reached that bar — it is a result, not a queue, and it stays split until enough people change their minds. A square nobody settles stays undecided; it never turns into a no. Judging each pair on its own is what stops a popular action being credited with fixing things it does not touch.
ACTIONROOT CAUSES · does the action on the left reduce it?
The best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zoneThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scansThe forecast is made by people who never see a peakNew staff copy bad habits from old handsPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacityWe measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes
Refresh training every quarter, not once discussnot decided yet
✓ yes, it reduces this
26 yes / 0 worse / 3 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✗ no, it does not
3 yes / 0 worse / 26 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
23 yes / 0 worse / 6 no
Rotate a planner onto the floor each week discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
5 yes / 0 worse / 24 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
25 yes / 0 worse / 4 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
27 yes / 0 worse / 2 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
26 yes / 0 worse / 3 no
One owner per recurring failure, named publicly discussnot decided yet
✗ no, it does not
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
22 yes / 0 worse / 7 no
✓ yes, it reduces this
24 yes / 0 worse / 5 no
✗ no, it does not
2 yes / 0 worse / 27 no
✗ no, it does not
6 yes / 0 worse / 23 no
Highest leverage so far
Rotate a planner onto the floor each week reduces 4 of 6 root causes
Refresh training every quarter, not once reduces 3 of 6 root causes
One owner per recurring failure, named publicly reduces 2 of 6 root causes
THE ACTIONS ON THE MAP
Showing every action the room judged: it acts directly on 5 of the 6 root causes. It does not act directly on 1.
Read from the squares the room settled at Actions, nothing else. A root in green is reduced by at least one of the shown actions; in grey, none of them acts on it directly; a red outline means one of them makes it worse.
We measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Small errors are hidden to avoid blameA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletNew staff copy bad habits from old hands → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackFixes are patched locally and never shared → We spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themFixes are patched locally and never shared → Targets reward speed over accuracyPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zone → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans → Targets reward speed over accuracyTwo products with almost the same code sit on the same rack → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletTargets reward speed over accuracy → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedTargets reward speed over accuracy → Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedSupervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing else → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe forecast is made by people who never see a peak → Targets reward speed over accuracyOvertime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exception → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingWe measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes ① Refresh training every quarter, not once ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each weekWe measure errors perorder, so a bigger orderhides more mistakes①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSNew staff copy bad habits from old hands ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week ③ One owner per recurring failure, named publiclyNew staff copy bad habitsfrom old hands②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity ① Refresh training every quarter, not once ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each weekPeak-hour load exceedsplanned capacity①②what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSThe best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zoneThe best pickers are movedto whatever is late, sonobody learns a zonewhat the shown actions do to this root causeNO ACTION ACTS ON ITDIRECTLYThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans ① Refresh training every quarter, not onceThe handheld takes fourseconds to confirm, sopeople batch their scans①what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 1 ACTIONSupervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing elseSupervisors are measured ondispatch time and nothingelseThe forecast is made by people who never see a peak ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week ③ One owner per recurring failure, named publiclyThe forecast is made bypeople who never see a peak②③what the shown actions do to this root causeREDUCED BY 2 ACTIONSTargets reward speed over accuracyTargets reward speed overaccuracypart of a feedback loop⟳Fixes are patched locally and never sharedFixes are patched locallyand never sharedpart of a feedback loop⟳A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingA short pick is recorded ascomplete so the line keepsmovingpart of a feedback loop⟳Small errors are hidden to avoid blameSmall errors are hidden toavoid blamepart of a feedback loop⟳Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackTwo products with almostthe same code sit on thesame rackpart of a feedback loop⟳Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionOvertime is the normal waywe finish a week, not theexceptionpart of a feedback loop⟳Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPicks are wrong oftenenough that customers nowcheck every palletpart of a feedback loop⟳Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedNobody checks a palletbefore it is wrappedWe spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themWe spend more time fixingerrors than we wouldpreventing them
Each number on the map marks a root cause that action reduces.
① Refresh training every quarter, not once
② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week
③ One owner per recurring failure, named publicly
FROM ACTIONS TO A PLAN
The grid judged each action on its own. A plan is a set of them the room would carry out together.
Members put plans together from the actions that reduce a root cause, and the room compares the plans two at a time, at three quarters of the votes cast, as it judged everything else. Each plan shows which root causes it acts on directly, which it does not, and which it makes worse.
The steward can open a plan comparison.
What we expect to follow
Predictions about the actions: what each should change, how to measure it, and when to check. On the date, someone who was in the room writes what actually happened beside it.
why
A map says which actions move which causes. It does not say whether anyone did them, or whether anything changed. An entry here is a prediction with a date and something to measure, written after the map settled. When the date comes, what actually happened is written beside it and the prediction stays as it was: a wrong one is the useful kind. Nobody voted on any of this and it changes nothing the room found.
due 24 Dec 2026
actionRefresh training every quarter, not once
we expectfewer wrong picks once a planner has stood where the picking happens
measured bypicking errors per 1,000 lines
guessesthe room: 6 (median of 15, spread 2 to 14)
WHAT NEXT
What this room found is the starting input of another kind of map. Each round below opens as a new room with the same people, already admitted, and with what carries over on its wall or beside it. A round is quicker than a first room: nobody joins, the question is framed, carried cards are already clarified, and a stage with nothing left to do closes at once. A round can be followed by another.
Actions · the root causes are what the actions are judged against; actions that moved one are already on the wall
What should we do about the root causes found, and what first?
The steward opens the next round; your seat carries over.