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← 大厅
7/7 · 行动
30 人 · 42 个想法
点击任意已完成的阶段进行查看
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结构
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地图
7
行动
演示 · 不计入
障碍 · 持有链接的任何人 · 公开列出 · 已开启联盟
主持人：它的主持人（已封存）
30 人 · 42 个想法 · 2 个小组 · 2 个房间 已结成联盟
通行证 → · 逻辑 → · 记录
↗ 分享这张地图
在其他网站上，作为实时地图：
作为图片： https://truecauses.org/d/a0141f0/map.svg
作为数据： 本房间每一个已判断的卡片对（CSV）. 每个主张都有自己的地址 /c/a0141f0/<card>，列在地图下方。
发布时请注明出处： 因果地图：True Causes，https://truecauses.org/d/a0141f0
问题

Why are deliveries late?

提出该做什么，再判断每项行动能否撼动每个根源。

封存于 40 天前：这个房间已不再知道谁曾在其中；只有主持人仍然留名。它得出的结论保留。
30 人在座 （其中 29 名为模拟成员） · 针对 6 个根本原因已提出 3 项行动。添加一项，然后判断每项行动能否撼动每个原因。
正以访客身份查看。输入用户名即可加入并参与。
有 2 组主张在一个循环中相互影响
↺ A short pick is recorded as complete so the li → Small errors are hidden to avoid blame → Two products with almost the same code sit on → Picks are wrong often enough that customers no → …
↺ Fixes are patched locally and never shared → Targets reward speed over accuracy
循环可能是一项真实的发现——一个自我强化的回路——也可能是一条方向从未真正确定的关联。地图把这组主张视为一个节点，所以其中没有一项单独是根源。如果是后一种情况，值得把这个卡片对重新交给房间。
先给根本原因打分
为什么
本方法自身的做法，在提出任何行动之前：每个根本原因按 1–5 分打分——解决它的可行性有多高、解决它会带来多大影响、不加干预它自行解决的可能性有多大。优先考虑影响大、可行性高、自行解决可能性低的根源——优先级 = 影响 + 可行性 − 可能性。分数在小组内取平均，并显示有多少人打了分。
1 = 低，5 = 高。这是你自己的分数；旁边是小组的平均分。
根本原因可行性影响自行解决优先级
The best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zone––––
The handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans––––
The forecast is made by people who never see a peak––––
New staff copy bad habits from old hands––––
Peak-hour load exceeds planned capacity––––
We measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes––––
每项行动能撼动每个根本原因吗？
竖列：大家提出的行动。横行：地图找出的根本原因。每个格子都是对一个问题的一次投票——这项行动能否显著减少那个原因？一方必须达到所投票数的 75% 才算定下；达不到，格子就保持分裂。 每个格子显示其投票分布——是 / 更糟 / 否——当其中一项达到四分之三时，该格子就定下了。
为什么
以所投票数的 75% 定下，和这里的其他所有问题一样。分裂表示有人投了票，但没有一方达到这个标准——这是一个结果，不是排队等待，它会一直保持分裂，直到足够多的人改变主意。没有人定下的格子保持未定；它永远不会变成否。逐对单独判断，能防止一项受欢迎的行动被记上它根本没触及的功劳。
行动根本原因 · 左边的行动能减少它吗？
The best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zoneThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scansThe forecast is made by people who never see a peakNew staff copy bad habits from old handsPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacityWe measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes
Refresh training every quarter, not once 讨论尚未确定
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
26 是 / 0 更糟 / 3 否
✗ 不，不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
✗ 不，不能
3 是 / 0 更糟 / 26 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
23 是 / 0 更糟 / 6 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
23 是 / 0 更糟 / 6 否
Rotate a planner onto the floor each week 讨论尚未确定
✗ 不，不能
5 是 / 0 更糟 / 24 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
25 是 / 0 更糟 / 4 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
22 是 / 0 更糟 / 7 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
27 是 / 0 更糟 / 2 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
26 是 / 0 更糟 / 3 否
One owner per recurring failure, named publicly 讨论尚未确定
✗ 不，不能
6 是 / 0 更糟 / 23 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
22 是 / 0 更糟 / 7 否
✓ 是，它能减少这一项
24 是 / 0 更糟 / 5 否
✗ 不，不能
2 是 / 0 更糟 / 27 否
✗ 不，不能
6 是 / 0 更糟 / 23 否
目前杠杆作用最大
Rotate a planner onto the floor each week 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 4 个
Refresh training every quarter, not once 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 3 个
One owner per recurring failure, named publicly 减少了 6 个根本原因中的 2 个
地图上的行动
显示的是房间判断过的所有行动：它直接作用于 6 个根本原因中的 5 个。 有 1 个没有直接作用。
只依据房间在行动阶段定下的格子，别无其他。绿色的根本原因至少被所显示行动中的一项减轻；灰色的，没有一项直接作用于它；红色边框表示其中某项会使它更糟。
分享此视图： 作为图片 · 作为供其他网站使用的实时地图
We measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Small errors are hidden to avoid blameA short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps moving → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletNew staff copy bad habits from old hands → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingSmall errors are hidden to avoid blame → Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackFixes are patched locally and never shared → We spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themFixes are patched locally and never shared → Targets reward speed over accuracyPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPeak-hour load exceeds planned capacity → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zone → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedThe handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans → Targets reward speed over accuracyTwo products with almost the same code sit on the same rack → Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletTargets reward speed over accuracy → Fixes are patched locally and never sharedTargets reward speed over accuracy → Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedSupervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing else → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingPicks are wrong often enough that customers now check every pallet → Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionThe forecast is made by people who never see a peak → Targets reward speed over accuracyOvertime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exception → A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingWe measure errors per order, so a bigger order hides more mistakes ① Refresh training every quarter, not once ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each weekWe measure errors perorder, so a bigger orderhides more mistakes①②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用2 项行动减轻它New staff copy bad habits from old hands ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week ③ One owner per recurring failure, named publiclyNew staff copy bad habitsfrom old hands②③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用2 项行动减轻它Peak-hour load exceeds planned capacity ① Refresh training every quarter, not once ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each weekPeak-hour load exceedsplanned capacity①②所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用2 项行动减轻它The best pickers are moved to whatever is late, so nobody learns a zoneThe best pickers are movedto whatever is late, sonobody learns a zone所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用没有行动直接作用于它The handheld takes four seconds to confirm, so people batch their scans ① Refresh training every quarter, not onceThe handheld takes fourseconds to confirm, sopeople batch their scans①所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用1 项行动减轻它Supervisors are measured on dispatch time and nothing elseSupervisors are measured ondispatch time and nothingelseThe forecast is made by people who never see a peak ② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week ③ One owner per recurring failure, named publiclyThe forecast is made bypeople who never see a peak②③所显示的行动对这个根本原因的作用2 项行动减轻它Targets reward speed over accuracyTargets reward speed overaccuracy属于一个反馈回路⟳Fixes are patched locally and never sharedFixes are patched locallyand never shared属于一个反馈回路⟳A short pick is recorded as complete so the line keeps movingA short pick is recorded ascomplete so the line keepsmoving属于一个反馈回路⟳Small errors are hidden to avoid blameSmall errors are hidden toavoid blame属于一个反馈回路⟳Two products with almost the same code sit on the same rackTwo products with almostthe same code sit on thesame rack属于一个反馈回路⟳Overtime is the normal way we finish a week, not the exceptionOvertime is the normal waywe finish a week, not theexception属于一个反馈回路⟳Picks are wrong often enough that customers now check every palletPicks are wrong oftenenough that customers nowcheck every pallet属于一个反馈回路⟳Nobody checks a pallet before it is wrappedNobody checks a palletbefore it is wrappedWe spend more time fixing errors than we would preventing themWe spend more time fixingerrors than we wouldpreventing them
地图上的每个编号标出该行动所减轻的一个根本原因。
① Refresh training every quarter, not once
② Rotate a planner onto the floor each week
③ One owner per recurring failure, named publicly
从行动到方案
表格对每项行动是单独判断的。方案是房间会一起执行的一组行动。
成员用能减轻某个根本原因的行动组合出方案，房间再像判断其他一切那样，把方案两两比较，以所投票数的四分之三为准。每个方案都显示它直接作用于哪些根本原因、哪些没有、又使哪些更糟。
主持人可以开启方案比较。
我们预期接下来会发生什么
关于各项行动的预测：每项应改变什么、如何衡量、何时检查。到了那一天，曾在房间里的某个人会在旁边写下实际发生了什么。
为什么
地图说明哪些行动能撼动哪些原因。它不说明是否有人做了这些行动，也不说明是否有什么改变了。这里的每一条都是一项预测，带有日期和要衡量的东西，在地图定下后写成。日期到了，实际发生的情况会写在旁边，而预测保持原样：错误的预测才是有用的那种。没有人对这些投过票，它也不改变房间发现的任何东西。
到期：24 Dec 2026
行动Refresh training every quarter, not once
预期fewer wrong picks once a planner has stood where the picking happens
衡量指标picking errors per 1,000 lines
估计房间：6（15 人的中位数，范围 2 到 14）
接下来
本房间的发现是另一种地图的起始输入。下面的每一轮都会作为新房间开启，成员相同、已批准加入，带入的内容放在墙上或墙旁。一轮比第一个房间更快：没有人加入，问题已经拟好，带入的卡片已经澄清过，没有事可做的阶段会立即关闭。一轮之后还可以再接一轮。
行动 · 根本原因是评判行动的依据；已触动某个根本原因的行动已在墙上
对于找到的根本原因，我们该做什么，先做什么？
下一轮由主持人开启；你的席位会保留。